enDaily Analysis 31/10/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 104.2 on Thursday as investors prepared for the personal consumption expenditures price index report, which could have a major impact on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions.
Gold hovers at new record levels
Markets are also assessing the latest US economic data, which shows annualised GDP growth of 2.8% for the third quarter, slightly below expectations of 3%.
Meanwhile, personal consumption and sales rose sharply, indicating the resilience of American consumers and keeping inflation risks at bay, while core PCE prices also showed unexpectedly high levels in the fourth quarter.
However, traders are bracing for more monetary easing at the next meeting, which benefits gold as low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion.
Investors are now awaiting personal consumption spending figures and payrolls data due on Thursday and Friday.
Gold was steady in early Asian trade, after breaching $2,800 an ounce for the first time on Wednesday. The precious metal continues to find support amid rising macroeconomic risks,
According to the World Gold Council, demand for gold rose 5% year-on-year in the third quarter, setting a record for the period. Geopolitical tensions also continue to boost gold’s status as a safe haven. Spot gold settled at $2,787.51 per ounce.
-Asian stocks fall on tech, yen gains little momentum as BOJ holds firm
Oil prices rose in early Asian trading. Prices were heavily influenced by recent geopolitical tensions in Israel and Lebanon, with Brent crude trading at $75.00 and WTI at $68.00.
-US Energy Information Administration data showed that US crude inventories fell by 0.5 million barrels last week, in contrast to market expectations for an increase of 2.3 million barrels.
In addition, gasoline and distillate inventories also declined during this period.
Meanwhile, markets continued to assess ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, including the possibility of renewed hostilities after the Israeli military chief of staff warned of a “very hard” blow to Iran if there was another missile attack.
However, downward pressure remains due to weak Chinese demand, while investors assess the supply outlook after reports that OPEC+ may delay a planned December oil production increase by a month or more.
– Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement about a possible diplomatic solution temporarily eased tensions. However, the analyst adds that the situation in the Middle East remains volatile, and therefore oil prices are vulnerable to further volatility. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 0.4% in the previous month to $68.90 per barrel; Brent crude futures rose 0.45% in the previous month to $72.88 per barrel.
-Bitcoin price stabilizes above $72,000 area. Bitcoin is showing positive signs and may soon target its all-time high.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price:
2784.51 Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2788.76 with a target price of 2795.19 and 2802.32
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2777.75, targeting 2770.93 and then 2763.09
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $68.80 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $69.11 level, targeting $69.58 and then $70.15.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $68.43 levels, targeting $67.91 and then $65.33.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08490
Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.08318, targeting 1.08158 and then 1.07945.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.08545, targeting 1.08730 and then 1.08954.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.29482
Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.29311, targeting the price of 1.29070 and then 1.28848
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.29611, targeting 1.29852 and then 1.30138
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20417
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20509, targeting 20612 then 20730
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 20352 with a target price of 20228 then 20120
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From Japan Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision 6:00
-From Europe Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct) 13:00
-From USA Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 15:30 -From
-USA Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep) 15:30
-From USA Unemployment Claims Rate 15:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 104.2 on Thursday as investors prepared for the personal consumption expenditures price index report, which could have a major impact on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions.
Markets are also cautiously awaiting non-farm payrolls data due on Friday and the US presidential election next week.
ADP data on Wednesday showed private sector hiring rose in October, pointing to a strong labor market.
Moreover, the US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, slightly below the expected rate of 3%, but strong personal spending and sales figures pointed to strong consumer spending.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a modest 25 basis point rate cut next week, following a more aggressive 50 basis point cut in September.
The dollar remains near multi-month highs against other major currencies, with the yen particularly weak amid ongoing policy uncertainty in Japan.
Gold held above $2,780 an ounce on Thursday, holding at record highs as demand for safe-haven assets surged amid uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election and geopolitical risks.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose toward $69 a barrel on Thursday, extending a more than 2 percent rebound from the previous session, supported by an unexpected drop in U.S. inventories.
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