Daily Market Analysis

 

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

-The dollar index held steady around 104.8 on Friday as investors prepared for the April US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

Gold stabilized before the US data, but is heading for its fourth consecutive monthly gain

-Bullion rose by 2.5% during the month so far

Silver is on track to achieve its largest monthly gain since July 2020

-Kyle, a financial markets analyst at, said that the monthly gains are due to “the (buying) element from the central bank and the remaining geopolitical risk story.”

The market is now awaiting the release of data on the core personal consumption expenditures price index in the United States, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, at 15:30 Mecca time.

“Before the data, gold prices were largely oscillating,” said Yip Jun at IG. “Last night’s weaker US GDP reading may call for an imminent policy easing, but much of the validation will still revolve around how inflation is progressing.”

He added that any rise in personal consumption expenditures could put gold in a defensive position, but it may take much longer than that to reverse the broader upward trend, with buyers potentially intervening to defend the $2,300 level.

Data on Thursday showed that the US economy grew more slowly in the first quarter than previously expected.

-Meanwhile, traders retreated from expectations of interest rate cuts after Federal Reserve officials recently took a hawkish tone suggesting a longer path to the 2% inflation target.

-While bullion is considered a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Oil fell as Federal Reserve policymakers sought to maintain interest rate cuts and gasoline stocks rose, with Brent crude trading at $81.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $77.00.

Dallas Fed President Lori Logan said she remains concerned about upside risks to inflation despite the recent easing, warning that the US central bank needs to be flexible and keep “all options on the table” as it monitors the data and determines how to… Response.

“It’s really important that we don’t stick to any particular monetary policy path,” Lujan said during an event in El Paso, Texas. “I think it’s too early to really think about lowering interest rates.”

Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that US crude oil inventories fell by 4.2 million barrels to 454.7 million barrels in the week ending May 24, compared with expectations in a Reuters poll for a decline of 1.9 million barrels.

-Bitcoin price started a recovery wave from the $67,000 area. BTC is now struggling to clear the $68,800 and $69,500 resistance levels.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2343.25

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2347.05, with a target price of 2353.48 and 2360.61.

Alternative scenario: sell gold at a fraction and hold below 2335.67, with a target price of 2329.22 and then 2323.00.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $77.57 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $77.80, targeting a price of $78.27, then 78.83. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $77.12, targeting a price of $76.60, then 76.02.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08206

The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.08271, targeting the price of 1.08455, then 1.08680.

Alternative scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break and hold firm by closing the candle below 1.08043, targeting the price of 1.07883 then 1.07670.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.27211

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.27067, targeting the price of 1.26869 then 1.26645.

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold steady by closing above 1.27403, targeting the price of 1.27689 then 1.27910.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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NAS100

 

rend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18547

The first scenario: sell the Nasdaq at a break and hold steady with a close below 18488, targeting the price of 18431 then 18380.

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq at a break and hold firm by closing at the highest level of 18590, price of 18659, then 18740.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From Europe Consumer Price Index (annual) (May) 12:00
From the United States of America Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (monthly) (April) 15:30

From the United States of America Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (annual) (April) 15:30

From Canada’s General Government Budget (annual) (March) 18:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

 The dollar index settled around 104.8 on Friday as investors prepared for the April US personal consumption expenditures price index report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.

On Thursday, the dollar came under pressure and Treasury yields followed lower as revised data showed the US economy grew at a lackluster annual pace of 1.3% in the first quarter, below advance estimates of 1.6% mainly due to a slowdown in consumer spending.

The revised data coupled with New York Fed President John Williams’ comments that restrictive policy helps lower inflation revived hopes for a cut in US interest rates.

However, Dallas Fed President Lori Logan said she remains concerned about upside risks to inflation and called for caution in adjusting policy.

Markets currently expect a 55% chance that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September, up from 51% the day before.

Gold prices are on track for a fourth straight monthly gain, even as the market struggles for momentum on Friday ahead of a key US inflation reading that could provide more clues on how to proceed with interest rate cuts later this year.

Oil prices fell early Friday as investors responded to comments from US Federal Reserve officials who said it was too early to start considering interest rate cuts, and following a surprise increase in US gasoline inventories that weighed on the market.