Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index held steady at 104.4 on Wednesday as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.

Gold pares early losses on safe-haven demand

Demand for the precious metal rose 4% year-on-year to 1,258 metric tons, the best second-quarter performance since 2000, according to the World Gold Council. Prices hit a record $2,427 an ounce during the period, averaging $2,338 an ounce — 18% higher than a year earlier.

Investors are now heading to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting later today, where the central bank is expected to maintain current interest rates.

The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates, but attention will be focused on any signs of a possible rate cut in September, while the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its target for short-term interest rates between 0% and 0.1%.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England is expected to start cutting interest rates on Thursday.

-On the geopolitical front, investors are monitoring developments in the Middle East, following reports that Israel launched an airstrike on Beirut in response to an attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend.

This came after the Israeli government announced that the top Hezbollah commander was killed in an air strike on Beirut on Tuesday, in response to an attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised its short-term interest rate to 0.25% from its previous range of 0% to 0.1%.

Asian stocks rose on Wednesday and the yen was volatile after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates, while investors assessed contrasting results from tech leader Microsoft and chipmaker AMD that pointed to a split in the artificial intelligence landscape.

Oil rises after Hamas leader killed, but China caps gains as Brent trades at $79.00, WTI at $75.00

-Hamas announces the killing of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, Israel claims the assassination of a senior Hezbollah leader in Beirut, and US crude inventories fell by 4.495 million barrels last week – API data, and OPEC+ is likely to stick to production policy at its August 1 meeting

Tensions in the Middle East have risen after reports that Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Iran, according to a statement issued by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and Iranian state media on Wednesday.

This came a day after the Israeli government announced that it had killed the top commander of Hezbollah in an air strike on Beirut on Tuesday in response to a cross-border rocket attack on Israel on Saturday.

The latest attack came despite diplomatic efforts by U.S. and U.N. officials to avoid a major escalation that could ignite the wider Middle East.

Separately, the United States also carried out a strike in Iraq in the latest conflict in the region.

“I think all of this together would certainly increase the chances of escalation in the Middle East,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.

Bitcoin price continued its losses and tested the support area at $65,500. Bitcoin is now consolidating and may target a new high if it breaks above $66,500.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2423.71

Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2426.23, targeting 2432.66 and 2439.79

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2414.85, targeting 2408.40 and then 2402.17

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $75.80 per barrel

Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $75.33 levels, targeting $74.80 and then $74.22.

Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $76.00 level, targeting $76.47 and then $77.04

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08171

First scenario: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.08104, targeting 1.07944 and then 1.07731.

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.08332, targeting 1.08516 and then 1.08741.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

 

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.28357

Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.28274, targeting the price of 1.28076 and then 1.27852

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.28610, targeting 1.28869 and then 1.29117.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 19201

Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 19141, targeting a price of 19084 and then 19033.

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq breakout and hold with close above 19243 price 19312 then 19392

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From Europe Consumer Price Index (YoY) (July) 12:00
-From USA ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (July) 15:15
-From USA US Crude Oil Inventory Index 17:30
-From USA FOMC Report 21:00
-From USA US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision 21:00 -Federal
Reserve Press Conference 21:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held steady at 104.4 on Wednesday as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement.

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates steady on Wednesday and pave the way for a rate cut in September.

Data on Tuesday showed that the number of job openings was little changed at 8.2 million in June, but it was slightly higher than expectations of 8 million.

Investors now look forward to more labor market data later this week including the JOLTS and the highly anticipated monthly jobs report.

The dollar was steady against most major currencies but fell against the yen amid bets that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again to support its currency and combat inflationary pressures in Japan.

Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened against the Australian dollar after Australia’s core inflation rate slowed more than expected in the second quarter.

Gold rose to around $2,420 an ounce on Wednesday, paring earlier losses driven by safe-haven demand amid fears of an escalating conflict in the Middle East. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was reportedly assassinated in Tehran, according to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard early Wednesday.

Oil futures rose more than $1 a barrel from seven-week lows on Wednesday after the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran heightened tensions in the Middle East, but prices remained under pressure from concerns about weak Chinese demand.