Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

•  The dollar index settled around 103.5 on Tuesday after witnessing sharp fluctuations in recent sessions, as investors turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
• Gold is in sideways movement and without a clear direction before the US Central Bank’s decision.
• Powell from the Federal Reserve will speak on Wednesday.
• The depth of the cuts in 2024 is expected to reach 166 basis points, compared to about 130 basis points a week ago.
• Today marks the beginning of a two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve’s policy committee.
• Economic uncertainty and US interest rate cuts could lead to gold prices rising to record levels in 2024.
• Oil prices rose amid Middle East concerns about fuel supplies, with Brent crude trading at $82.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $77.00.
• Amazon decides to cancel the acquisition deal for iRobot.
• Intel beats revenue estimates with $15.4 billion in sales, but shares fall 12% on weak guidance.
• Bitcoin price gains momentum above the $42,500 resistance level. BTC shows positive signs and may extend its rise towards the $45,000 resistance level.

 

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

The overall trend: Upward

Timeframe: 30 minutes

Current price: 2032.95
First scenario: Buy gold by breaking and staying above 2036.21 with a target price of 2041.26 and 2048.21
Alternative scenario: Sell gold by breaking and staying below 2027.97 with a target price of 2021.53 and then 2014.17

Comment: Trading above support and averages favors the uptrend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Upward

Timeframe: 30 minutes

Current price: $77.19 per barrel
First scenario: Buy oil by breaking and closing the candle above $77.39 with a target price of $77.86 and then $78.43
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking $76.71 with a target price of $76.19 and then $75.61

Comment: Trading above support and averages favors the uptrend

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EURUSD

 

The overall trend: Downward

Timeframe: 30 minutes

Current price: 1.08246
First scenario: Sell EUR/USD by breaking 1.08178 with a target price of 1.08018 and then 1.07805
Alternative scenario: Buy EUR/USD by breaking and closing the candle above 1.08405 with a target price of 1.08590 and then 1.08814

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages favors the downside

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GBPUSD

 

The overall trend: Downward

Timeframe: 30 minutes

Current price: 1.27085
First scenario: Sell GBP/USD by breaking and staying below 1.26860 with a target price of 1.26662 and then 1.26438
Alternative scenario: Buy GBP/USD by breaking and closing above 1.27195 with a target price of 1.27481 and then 1.27703

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages favors the downside

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NAS100

 

The overall trend: Upward

Timeframe: 30 minutes

Current price: 17725
First scenario: Buy Nasdaq by breaking and closing above 17750 with a target price of 17790 and then 17836
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq by breaking and closing below 17691 with a target price of 17649 and then 17606

Comment: Trading above support and averages favors the upside.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• From Germany German GDP (quarterly) (Q4) 12:00
• From Europe German GDP (quarterly) (Q4) 13:00
• From the United States of America CB Consumer Confidence Index (January) 18:00
• From the United States of America Job Opportunities Index (JOLTs) (December) 18:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

•  The dollar index settled around 103.5 on Tuesday after witnessing sharp fluctuations in recent sessions, as investors turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
• The central bank is set to keep interest rates steady but the focus will be on any hints about the timing and speed of interest rate cuts this year.
• Bets on a 25 basis point rate cut in March are currently around 47% while the odds of a 25 basis point cut in May are 50%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
• Meanwhile, markets will evaluate Tuesday’s jobs data ahead of Friday’s closely watched monthly jobs report.
• The dollar stabilized in all sectors, but suffered losses against the Australian and New Zealand dollars and the Japanese yen.
• Gold prices were in a tight range on Tuesday as traders awaited the US central bank’s decision on key interest rates and comments from Chairman Jerome Powell.
• Markets widely expect the Fed to hold steady on interest rates at its two-day policy meeting that begins later in the day, but attention will largely be on Powell’s comments on Wednesday.
• Oil prices rebounded again in early trading on Tuesday, after falling more than 1% in the previous session, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the key Middle East production region stoked supply concerns.