Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

• The dollar index held steady above 101 on Friday but is still on track to end the year lower as traders piled on bets that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates in March next year.
• Gold is on track for its best year in three years on hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
• Gold is looking to post its best year since 2020 with annual gains of 14%.
• The increasing likelihood of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts is driving gold prices in 2024.
• The dollar is on track for its worst annual performance in three.
• Palladium has fallen 37% so far this year, its biggest drop since 2008.
• Oil prices are ending the year down 10% as concerns about demand ease from the recent rally, trading at $77 a barrel for Brent crude and $72 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate.
• Huawei outperforms Apple and Nvidia: Revenue approaches $100 billion as China bolsters its tech muscle despite US sanctions.
• Ethereum jumps 7% to $2,400, its highest level in 20 months, while other major cryptocurrencies fall.
• Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, predicts that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds will lead to a “significant” increase in the price of BTC.

Smart technical reports

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

GOLD

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,069.89

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,073.25, targeting a price of $2,078.31 and then $2,085.26.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,065.02, targeting a price of $2,058.57 and then $2,051.22.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

CRUDE OIL

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $72.16 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $72.34, targeting a price of $72.81 and then $73.37.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $71.66, targeting a price of $71.14 and then $70.55.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

EURUSD

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.10610

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.10549, targeting a price of $1.10389 and then $1.10176.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.10777, targeting a price of $1.10961 and then $1.11186.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

GBPUSD

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.27535

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.27283, targeting a price of $1.27085 and then $1.26861.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $1.27619, targeting a price of $1.27905 and then $1.28126.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

NAS100

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $17,095

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $17,067, targeting a price of $17,025 and then $16,982.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $17,126, targeting a price of $17,166 and then $17,212.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

• US: the Federal Reserve balance sheet at 00:30

Fundamental Analysis

• The dollar index held steady above 101 on Friday, but is still on track to end the year lower as traders bet on the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in March of next year.
• The index has lost more than 2% in 2023 after gaining about 15% in the previous two years.
• After embarking on a strong cycle of rate hikes that began in early 2022, the U.S. central bank is now expected to begin easing in early next year amid signs that inflation in the United States is cooling.
• The Federal Reserve’s accommodating stance during its December policy meeting, indicating the possibility of multiple rate reductions in 2024 and subsequent years, further strengthened these perspectives.
• In addition, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have signaled no intention of cutting rates anytime soon, while other major central banks are expected to follow the Fed’s lead in easing policy, putting further pressure on the dollar.
• Gold prices hit their best year in three years on Friday, with rising expectations of U.S. rate cuts early next year, the war in Ukraine, and tensions in the Middle East all contributing to safe-haven demand.
• Oil prices are set to end 2023 down by about 10%, their first annual decline in two years, after geopolitical concerns, production cuts, and global efforts to curb inflation led to sharp price swings.