Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar continued to face selling pressure due to data that did not support the currency, as well as testimony from Fed members hinting at a rate cut.
• The US dollar could still be supported by economic growth and yield advantages, but there are growing bets that the central bank has finished raising rates and could start cutting them next year.
• Gold is approaching a seven-month high as the dollar and yields weaken on bets of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled the possibility of a rate cut in the coming months.
• Markets expect inflation to slow down, according to an analyst who will release personal consumption expenditures data on Thursday.
• Traders are raising their bets on a rate cut by May 2024 to 70%, from 50% previously.
• Oil remained largely unchanged as traders await an OPEC+ decision, and a storm in the Black Sea disrupts supplies. Brent crude traded at $81.84 and West Texas Intermediate at $76.53.
• Bitcoin trimmed its losses and rose above $37,750. BTC has gained momentum but is still struggling to break through the resistance zone of $38,500.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $2,044.50 

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $2,050.24, targeting a price of $2,055.30 and then $2,062.25.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $2,042.01, targeting a price of $2,035.56 and then $2,028.21.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $76.69 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $76.77, targeting a price of $77.22 and then $77.88.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $76.35, targeting a price of $75.94 and then $75.45.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.10009

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.09906, targeting a price of $1.09746 and then $1.09533.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.10133, targeting a price of $1.10318 and then $1.10542.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.27179

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.26981, targeting a price of $1.26784 and then $1.26560.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.27317, targeting a price of $1.27603 and then $1.27824.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $16,074

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $16,033, targeting a price of $15,979 and then $15,915.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $16,113, targeting a price of $16,175 and then $16,238.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Germany: Inflation rate index at 16:00
• United States: Trade balance index at 16:30
• United States: Gross domestic product growth rate index at 16:30
• United States: Change in US crude oil inventories at 18:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index held steady around 102.6 on Wednesday, hovering near its lowest level in over three months as the latest comments from the Federal Reserve boosted bets that the central bank has finished raising interest rates and could start cutting rates next year.
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that current monetary settings are sufficiently tight, and he signaled the possibility of a rate cut in the coming months.
• Chicago Fed President Charles Evans also pointed to significant progress on inflation, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that more rate hikes are likely to be needed as evolving dynamics keep inflation elevated.
• Markets now see a 40% chance that the Fed will start easing monetary policy as early as March 2024.
• Investors are now looking to personal consumption expenditures prices, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, as well as data on personal income and spending, and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for further guidance.
• Gold price touched it highest level in nearly seven months on Wednesday, driven by the continued decline in the US dollar and bond yields as investor confidence grows that the Fed is likely to cut rates by the first half of next year.
• Oil traded in a narrow range on Wednesday as investors grew cautious ahead of a crucial OPEC+ meeting to determine production targets for the coming months. However, disruptions to supplies from the Black Sea region provided a support base for prices, keeping them from falling too far.