Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar prepares to achieve its second consecutive monthly gains.
• Gold heads for its worst month in seven months due to rising US interest rate expectations.
• The dollar and the bond yields look forward to their best quarterly results since 2007.
• Platinum and palladium are ready to achieve quarterly gains.
• Silver also sees its worst month since February.
• Oil heads for a 2% weekly gain due to China’s holiday demand and US supply tightness. Brent crude trades at $93.01 and West Texas Intermediate at $90.79.
• Bitcoin takes off to touch $27,000 levels and the slight rise is likely to continue.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

 

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GOLD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,867.52
First scenario: Buy gold on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1,868.24, targeting a price of $1,872.63 and then $1,877.12.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,862.38, targeting a price of $1,857.10 and then $1,852.10.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $90.72 per barrel

First scenario: Buying oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $91.19, targeting a price of $91.65 and then $92.18.

Alternative scenario: Selling oil on the break of $90.57, targeting a price of $90.13 and then $89.70.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish 

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.0588
First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.05722, targeting a price of $1.05562, and then $1.05389.

Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1.05952, targeting a price of $1.06139 and then $1.06349.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.22346
First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break when staying below $1.22010, targeting a price of $1.21684 and then $1.21376.

Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $1.22427, targeting a price of $1.22770 and then $1.23099.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $14,898
First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break when staying below $14,836, targeting a price of $14,782 and then $14,710.

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $14,917, targeting a price of $14,978 and then $15,041.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Europe: European Central Bank President Lagarde speaks at 10:40
• Europe: Annual inflation rate index at 12:00
• Canada: GDP index at 15:30
• United States: Core PCE Price Index MoM at 15:30
• United States: Chicago PMI at 16:45
• United States: Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final at 17:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index fell to around 106 on Friday but remained on track to advance for the second month in a row, supported by growing optimism that the US economy can withstand higher interest rates better than other economies.
• Data on Thursday showed that the US economy maintained a fairly strong growth pace of 2.1% in the second quarter, while initial jobless claims fell less than expected to 204,000 last week, increasing signs of a strong labor market.
• Last week, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but signaled another rate hike before the end of the year and less rate cuts than previously indicated for next year.
• The subsequent comments from several Fed officials also reinforced the idea that the central bank will need to raise interest rates more.
• Investors are now looking forward to the Fed’s preferred personal consumption expenditures price index report on Friday for more evidence.
• Gold prices recovered on Friday, heading for their biggest monthly drop since February, hovering around their lowest level in more than six months amid expectations of longer interest rate hikes ahead of a widely watched US inflation reading later in the day.
• Oil prices rose by about one dollar per barrel on Friday, heading for a 2% weekly gain after regaining their gains, as strong demand from China during the holiday and continued tightness of US fundamentals outweighed possible increases in supply from Saudi Arabia