enDaily Analysis 29/08/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index traded near 101 on Thursday after rising half a percent in the previous session, as investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data that could guide the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
Gold nears record highs
Later today, the second estimate of second-quarter GDP and the latest initial jobless claims will be released, with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index report, due out on Friday.
Traders are currently pricing in a 63.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 36.5% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut in the expected September rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Markets also expect interest rates to be cut by 100 basis points for the rest of the year, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets.
Elsewhere, official data showed that China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong rose 17% in July, marking the first increase since March.
Gold rose in early Asian trading, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, which makes the precious metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Market focus is likely to shift to the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, due on Friday as the data could provide further clues on the Fed’s rate-cutting path, analysts said.
Asian stocks fell on Thursday after Nvidia’s results disappointed some bullish investors, while the dollar steadied and the Treasury yield curve came within striking distance of turning positive.
Oil rises as Libyan supply concerns offset smaller-than-expected U.S. stock draw, with Brent trading at $77.00 and WTI at $74.00.
U.S. crude futures lost more than 1 percent on Wednesday after data showed U.S. crude inventories fell by 846,000 barrels to 425.2 million barrels last week, less than analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.3 million-barrel drop.
Some analysts said concerns about supply disruptions from OPEC member Libya were positive for the market.
Libya’s troubles, amid growing geopolitical concerns, will keep oil markets on edge and likely limit price declines, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Philip Nova.
Some oil fields in Libya have stopped producing amid fighting over control of the central bank, with one consulting firm estimating the disruption could range from 900,000 to 1 million barrels per day for several weeks.
-Bitcoin price started a consolidation phase near the $58,500 level. Bitcoin must clear the $60,500 resistance level to start a recovery wave in the near term.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2520.67
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2522.35, targeting 2528.78 and 2535.91
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2510.97, targeting 2504.53 and then 2496.69
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $74.22 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $74.54 level, targeting $75.00 and then $75.57.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $73.86 levels, targeting $73.34 and then $72.75.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.11332 Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.11452, targeting 1.11636 and then 1.11861
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.11225, targeting 1.11065 and then 1.10852.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.32207
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.32396, targeting the price of 1.32637 and then 1.32923.
Alternative scenario: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.32096, targeting 1.31855 and then 1.31633
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19319
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 19366, targeting 19469 then 19587
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 19209 with target price 19084 then 18977
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From Germany German CPI (MoM) (Aug) 15:00
-From USA GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 15:30
-From USA Unemployment Claims Rate 15:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index traded near 101 on Thursday after rising half a percent in the previous session, as investors looked ahead to key U.S. economic data that could guide the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
A second estimate of second-quarter GDP and the latest initial jobless claims are due later today, while the personal spending price index, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, will follow on Friday.
However, the dollar index remained hovering near 13-month lows amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September.
A number of Fed officials are expecting interest rate cuts due to falling inflation and rising labor market risks, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell saying in Jackson Hole last week that “the time has come” to adjust policy restraints.
Markets are expecting about 100 basis points of monetary easing this year.
Gold rose above $2,510 an ounce on Thursday, nearing record highs, as the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut continued to support the metal, while investors awaited further signals on the extent of the reduction.
Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday after two sessions of losses as concerns over Libyan supplies returned to focus, although this was offset by a smaller-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories that dampened demand expectations.
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