enDaily Analysis 29/07/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index fell below 104.3 on Monday, remaining in a sideways trading range over the past week as traders cautiously await the latest policy decision from the Federal Reserve.
Gold prices rise amid hopes of Fed rate cut, geopolitical risks
Spot gold rose 0.5 percent to $2,397.65 an ounce by 3:25 p.m. Mecca time. U.S. gold futures rose 0.7 percent to $2,396.70.
The U.S. central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee meets on July 30-31 and is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. However, weaker U.S. jobs data in June, a slowdown and comments from senior Fed officials have prompted the interest rate futures market to fully price in a 25 basis point rate cut in September.
-Gold bullion has historically enjoyed a reputation for stability as a preferred hedge against geopolitical and economic risks, and it thrives in a low interest rate environment.
-On the geopolitical front, Israel’s security cabinet has authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to decide on “the manner and timing” of a response to a rocket attack in the occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 teenagers and children, which Israel and the United States have blamed on the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
The ADP National Employment Report and Non-Farm Payrolls are the main data points due out this week.
Gold premiums in India jumped to a 10-year high last week as the government’s move to cut import duties pushed down domestic prices, sparking a surge in demand. [GOL/AS]* Spot silver rose 0.9% to $28.14 an ounce, platinum gained 0.9% to $943.40 and palladium rose 1.1% to $909.71.
Asian stocks rebound, on hopes of cautious outlook in US, UK
Asian stocks rose on Monday in a week of earnings and three central bank meetings that could see the United States and the United Kingdom open the door to monetary easing, while Japan could raise borrowing costs in a step toward “normalcy.”
Oil rises amid fears of widening conflict in the Middle East after a missile attack on the Golan Heights, with Brent crude trading at $80.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $77.00.
Last week, Brent crude lost 1.8%, while West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.7%, amid falling Chinese demand and hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza.
On Sunday, Israel’s security cabinet authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to decide on “the manner and timing” of a response to Saturday’s rocket attack in the Golan Heights that killed 12 teenagers and children.
– The Iranian-backed Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack, the deadliest in Israel or Israeli-annexed territory since an Oct. 7 attack by the Palestinian Hamas movement sparked the Gaza war. The conflict has spread to several fronts and threatens to spill over into a wider regional conflict.
Israel has vowed to respond to Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Israeli aircraft struck targets in southern Lebanon on Sunday.
-Bitcoin price started rising again above the $68,000 resistance level. Bitcoin price is now rising and may rise towards the $70,000 resistance area.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2392.88
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2398.09, targeting 2405.39 and 2412.52
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2387.58, targeting 2381.13 and then 2374.90
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $77.11 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $76.73 levels, targeting $76.21 and then $75.62.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $77.41 level, targeting $77.88 and then $78.44
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08586 Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD by breaking 1.08498, targeting 1.08338 and then 1.08125
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.08726, targeting 1.08910 and then 1.08135.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.28717
Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.28616, targeting the price of 1.28419 and then 1.28195
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.28952, targeting 1.29238 and then 1.29460.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19315
Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 19258, targeting a price of 19201 then 19150
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq break and hold with a close above 19359, price 19429 then 19509
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-There are no economic events scheduled for today.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index fell below 104.3 on Monday, remaining in a sideways trading range over the past week as traders cautiously await the latest policy decision from the Federal Reserve.
The US central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, while markets will be looking for clues on how aggressively the Fed will cut rates in the coming months.
Data on Friday showed that the core personal consumption expenditures price index came in in line with expectations but the core rate came in slightly higher than forecast.
Previous data also showed the U.S. economy expanded at a faster-than-expected 2.8% pace in the second quarter, led by accelerating consumer demand, but remained below the 2021-23 average of 3.1%.
The dollar also came under pressure from improved risk sentiment, with global stocks and commodities rising from recent lows.
Elsewhere, traders were closely watching the yen’s moves amid speculation the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates this week.
Gold prices rose on Monday amid expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut in September and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while focus shifted to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting later this week.
Oil prices rose on Monday, paring last week’s losses, amid concerns that the Middle East conflict could widen after a rocket attack on the occupied Golan Heights, which Israel and the United States blamed on the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.
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