Daily Market Analysis

 

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

-The dollar index rose above 104.7 on Wednesday, rebounding further from recent lows amid hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, while investors braced for the US PCE price report due later this week.

-Gold declines as bets on lowering interest rates in the United States ease

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Tuesday, in an interview, that the Fed should hold off on cutting interest rates until inflation improves significantly, and perhaps raise interest rates if inflation fails to decline further.

Investors are now focusing on US personal consumption expenditures data due on Friday, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, which is expected to be in line with the Consumer Price Index, indicating that prices have not accelerated.

Meanwhile, growing geopolitical risks in the Middle East continued to enhance the appeal of a safe haven, with recent reports showing that the Israeli military struck a camp west of Rafah, with Gaza health authorities reporting that Israeli tank shelling had harmed at least 21 people in the area. Specific. Civilian evacuation area.

-“Investors will try to position themselves in gold because the long-term fundamentals in general look very strong for gold at the moment.”

-Traders currently expect about a 57% chance of a rate cut by November, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said in a note: “The release of core personal consumption expenditures data in the United States would make it easier for gold to regain the $2,400 level, given the potential repercussions of the timing of interest rate cuts.”

German inflation data scheduled for Wednesday and the broader Eurozone reading on Friday will be watched for confirmation of the European Central Bank’s expected interest rate cut next week and for clues about how quickly the central bank can come in for subsequent easing.

While gold is used as a hedge against inflation, raising interest rates increases the opportunity cost of owning non-yielding bullion.

-The Chinese yuan hits the lowest level in 6 months as the Federal Reserve’s bets decline, which leads to a strengthening of the dollar

Oil advanced with major producers expecting to keep production cuts in place, with Brent crude trading at $84.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $79.00.

Traders and analysts expect the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, known as the OPEC+ group, to maintain voluntary production cuts, which total about 2.2 million barrels per day.

An analyst said, the expectation that OPEC+ members will extend production cuts has injected optimism into the markets and the move will be seen as a concerted effort to stabilize prices and rebalance the global oil market.

“The beginning of the summer driving season in the United States stimulates a seasonal rise in consumption and usually helps create positive momentum in crude oil prices.”

-Bitcoin price struggled to stay above $70,000 and corrected gains. BTC is now trading below $69,000 and is showing some bearish signs.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2359.24

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2363.52, with a target price of 2369.95 and 2377.08.

Alternative scenario: sell gold at a break and hold below 2352.13, with a target price of 2345.69 and then 2339.46.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $79.92 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest levels of $80.30, targeting a price of $80.77, then 81.33. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $79.62, targeting a price of $79.10, then 78.52.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08458

The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.08595, targeting a price of 1.08780, then 1.09005.

Alternative scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break and hold firm by closing the candle below 1.08368, targeting the price of 1.08208 then 1.07995.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.27509

The first scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold at the highest level of 1.27698, targeting the price of 1.27984, then 1.28205.

Alternative scenario: sell the pound dollar at a break and hold firm by closing below 1.27362, targeting a price of 1.27164 then 1.26940.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18867

The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold steady by closing above 18939, targeting the price of 19009 then 19089.

Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold firm by closing below 18837, price 18780, then 18729.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From Germany German CPI (monthly) (May) 15:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index rose above 104.7 on Wednesday, rebounding further from recent lows amid hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, while investors braced for a US personal consumption expenditures price report due later this week.

The Fed should hold off on cutting interest rates until significant progress is made on inflation, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari told CNBC on Tuesday.

He stated that the central bank may consider raising interest rates if inflation does not continue to decline.

Meanwhile, data on Tuesday showed that US consumer confidence unexpectedly improved in May, reinforcing hawkish expectations on Federal Reserve policy.

Markets now see December as the likely start of the monetary easing cycle, well after previous expectations of a September rate cut.

The dollar strengthened across the board, but failed to gain much momentum against the Australian dollar as Australia’s monthly inflation rate accelerated to its highest level in five months.
Gold prices fell on Wednesday as the US dollar and Treasury yields held steady ahead of key inflation data, which could provide more clarity on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.

Oil prices rose in Asian trading on Wednesday amid expectations that major producers will maintain production cuts at a meeting on Sunday, and that fuel consumption should start to rise with the start of the summer peak demand season.