enDaily Analysis 29/03/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
- The dollar index rose to around 104.6 on Friday, hovering near a six-week high as investors await a key US inflation reading that could impact interest rate expectations.
- Gold holds steady as traders await US data for more Fed cues
- Gold rises amid thin holiday trading
- Gold rose in thin holiday trading in Asia, with many markets closed for Good Friday. The precious metal’s rally shows no signs of slowing down yet, supported by ongoing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts despite recent hawkish comments.
- Gold prices are closely tied to interest rates, with rising rates making the non-yielding metal less attractive.
- The metal is also on track to gain more than 9% for March.
- Markets are betting that the Fed will start cutting rates in June.
- Many markets are closed on Friday for Good Friday when the PCE data is due, so the full reaction is expected to be seen next week.
- Elsewhere, investors continued to use gold as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
- Stocks retreat, focus on yen, as inflation data looms
- Global stock market gauges were little changed on Thursday as they headed for a strong quarterly gain, while a strong dollar kept the yen near its weakest in decades on the threat of intervention by Japanese authorities.
- US stocks ended mixed on Thursday, heading for the finish line of a choppy, low-volume week that was interrupted by the Good Friday holiday.
- On the other end of the spectrum, Tesla fell 29.2% during the quarter.
- US stocks ended mixed on Thursday, heading for the finish line of a choppy, low-volume week that was interrupted by the Good Friday holiday.
- Crude rises on stronger-than-expected US economic data
- Brent crude is trading at $86.00 and WTI crude is trading at $82.00
- Oil prices have also recently risen due to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, which have affected more than 10% of the country’s oil processing capacity.
- In the Middle East, the UN Security Council has passed a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, but analysts have doubted whether it will end Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping that have disrupted supply routes.
- Bitcoin price rises above $70,000 resistance zone again. BTC appears to be gearing up for a steady rise above the $71,500 resistance zone.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2232.79
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2238.51, with a target price of 2244.94 and 2252.32. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2227.13, with a price target of 2220.68 and then 2213.33.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $82.79 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $83.03, targeting a price of $83.50, then 84.06. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $82.35, targeting a price of $81.83, then 81.24.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: – Bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.07755
The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07678, targeting a price of 1.07518, then 1.07306. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07906, targeting a price of 1.08090, then 1.08315.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
GBPUSD
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.26227
The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.26089, targeting a price of 1.25892 then 1.25668. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a break and holding steady by closing above 1.26425, targeting a price of 1.26711 then 1.26932.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
NAS100
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18465
The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18506, targeting the price of 18545 then 18591. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18446, targeting a price of 18405 then 18361.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Monthly) and Annual (February) 15:30
- Speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell 18:30
Fundamental Analysis
- The dollar index rose to around 104.6 on Friday, hovering near a six-week high as investors await a key US inflation reading that could impact interest rate expectations.
- However, trading volume is expected to remain light due to the closure of US markets for Good Friday.
- The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, will be closely scrutinized for clues on whether recent hot inflation data will persist.
- Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank could delay cutting interest rates amid strong inflation data.
- Markets currently see a roughly 60% chance of a federal rate cut in June, down from about 70% last week.
- Gold steadied above $2,230 an ounce in thin holiday trade on Friday, hovering near record highs amid bets that major central banks will pivot to cutting rates this year, while rising geopolitical tensions boosted demand for the safe-haven metal.
- Crude oil and gasoline prices settled moderately higher on Thursday, with crude hitting a one-week high. Stronger-than-expected US economic data on Thursday pointed to a strong economy, which was bullish for energy demand and crude prices. On the downside for crude, the dollar index rose to a six-week high on Thursday.
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