Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index steadied around 103.9 on Thursday after suffering wild swings in the previous session, as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. inflation reading that could shape the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.
• Gold prices held steady as traders awaited a key U.S. inflation report.
• Personal consumption expenditures inflation data is due at 16:30 Mecca time.
• Seven Federal Reserve officials are due to speak this week.
• Personal consumption expenditures inflation data is due on Thursday.
• The Chinese yuan rose on strong stock inflows, with eyes on U.S. data and China’s parliament.
• Oil slips further on U.S. demand and rate hike fears, with Brent crude trading at $82.00 and WTI crude at $78.00.
• U.S. crude stocks rise for a fifth straight week, with rising interest rates also weighing on prices.
• Market looks to potential OPEC+ output cut extension.
• Asian stocks wobble ahead of U.S. inflation data.
• The cryptocurrency Bitcoin rose as much as 14% late Wednesday to hit $64,000.

---

 

Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

---

 

GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2036.86

The first scenario: Buy gold at a fraction and hold above 2040.67, with a target price of 2045.73 and 2052.67. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2032.44, with a price target of 2025.99 and then 2018.44.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

---

 

CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $78.11 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest levels of $78.50, targeting a price of $78.97, then 79.53. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $77.82, targeting a price of $77.30, then 76.71.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

---

 

EURUSD

 

General trend:- Bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08341

The first scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08435, targeting a price of 1.08620, then 1.08844. Alternative scenario: Sell the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08208, targeting a price of 1.08048, then 1.07835.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

---

 

GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26653

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.26375, targeting a price of 1.26177 then 1.25954. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a break and holding steady at a close above 1.26711, targeting a price of 1.26997 then 1.27218.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline

---

 

NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 17905

The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 17935, targeting a price of 17974 then 17021. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18876, targeting a price of 17834 then 17790.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

---

 

Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From Germany:
• Consumer Price Index (Monthly and Annual) (February): 12:00
• German Consumer Price Index (Monthly) (February): 16:00

From the United States:
• Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Monthly) (January): 16:30
• Initial Jobless Claims: 16:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

•

• The dollar index steadied around 103.9 on Thursday after suffering wild swings in the previous session, as investors remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. inflation reading that could shape the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance.
• Thursday’s report on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, is expected to show a 0.4% increase in January after a 0.2% rise in December.
• A stronger-than-expected PCE deflator could further reduce bets on rate cuts in the first half, potentially lifting the dollar.
• Meanwhile, data on Wednesday showed the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, slightly below the initial estimate of 3.3%.
• The dollar was steady against most major currencies but slipped against the yen after a Bank of Japan official called for discussions on a possible exit from ultra-easy monetary policy.
• Gold prices held steady on Thursday, holding on to gains so far this month despite fading hopes for quick and deep U.S. interest rate cuts, as investors awaited a key U.S. inflation reading due later in the day.
• Oil prices on Thursday extended their losses from the previous session after a larger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude stockpiles raised concerns about slowing demand, while pressure was added by signs that U.S. interest rates could remain elevated.