enDaily Analysis 28/10/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index rose to around 104.5 on Monday, heading for a three-month high and tracking a rise in Treasury yields driven by signs of resilience in the U.S. economy and bets on a Trump win in the Nov. 5 election.
Gold falls as Middle East risks ease
Israeli aircraft targeted military sites across Iran on Saturday, avoiding oil and nuclear facilities, and Tehran did not immediately pledge to respond.
Meanwhile, markets are focusing on key US data this week, including personal consumption expenditures inflation, preliminary estimates of third-quarter GDP and payrolls figures, for insights into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook, after recent strong economic data dampened expectations of aggressive cuts.
Low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion assets.
However, uncertainty surrounding the US elections and other monetary easing by major central banks continues to support gold.
-Gold falls; US economic data in the spotlight
Gold fell in early Asian trading. The market is awaiting a series of key US economic data this week, with investors expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at a slower pace than previously expected.
-High interest rates usually discourage investors from investing in non-interest-bearing bullion.
Gold prices have recently risen due to safe-haven demand amid heightened geopolitical risks. However, the gains were offset by recent US economic data, which highlighted the resilience of the economy.
– Oil prices fall, and expectations of a decrease in the geopolitical risk premium, with Brent crude trading at $75.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $68.00
Oil prices fell in the Asian morning session as markets digested the latest developments in the Middle East.
-Oil prices could fall as Israel launched a calculated attack on Iran over the weekend that targeted only military targets. They added that Iran also downplayed the scale and effectiveness of the attack, and did not immediately say it would respond. They say this is likely to lead to a significant reduction in the geopolitical risk premium that has been priced into oil markets in the coming days.
Israeli fighter jets targeted military sites across Iran on Saturday in response to Iranian missile attacks in early October.
Oil prices have been volatile this month as geopolitical risks in the Middle East have grown, although Israel’s response has been more measured and proportionate than markets feared, raising hopes for further de-escalation in the regional conflict.
On the demand side, signs of weak economic activity in China, the largest consumer, continued to weigh on sentiment, with weekend data pointing to a decline in industrial profits despite recent government stimulus.
Elsewhere, market participants are watching potential production adjustments by OPEC+ and the fallout from the US election.
-Bitcoin price is trying to make a fresh high above the $67,000 area. Bitcoin may gain momentum if it surpasses the resistance area at $68,750.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2733.10
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2734.52, targeting 2740.95 and 2748.08
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2723.13 with a target price of 2716.69 and then 2708.85
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $68.31 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $68.74 level, targeting $69.21 and then $69.77.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $68.06 levels, targeting $67.54 and then $66.95.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.07867
Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.07754, targeting 1.07594 and then 1.07381.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.07981, targeting 1.08166 and then 1.08390.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.29457
Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.29344 level, targeting the price of 1.29104 and then 1.28882
Alternative scenario: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold at a buy close of 1.29644 with a target price of 1.29885 then 1.30172
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20655
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20710, targeting 20814 then 20932
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 20553 with a target price of 20429 then 20322
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
There is no significant economic data to release today.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index rose to around 104.5 on Monday, heading for a three-month high and tracking a rise in Treasury yields driven by signs of resilience in the U.S. economy and bets on a Trump victory in the Nov. 5 election.
There are also growing expectations that the Fed will adopt a more cautious approach to further rate cuts, and is likely to opt for more moderate cuts of around 25 basis points in upcoming meetings.
Investors are now looking ahead to more US economic data this week including US job openings, preliminary GDP reading, PCE and PMI reports.
On the political front, market expectations are that Trump will retake the White House in November, which is pushing the dollar and Treasury yields higher amid inflationary policies such as higher tariffs and tax cuts.
The dollar rose sharply against the yen after Japan’s ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority, complicating the Bank of Japan’s plans to raise interest rates.
Gold fell below $2,730 an ounce on Monday, pressured by a decline in the appeal of safe-haven assets following Israel’s more cautious-than-expected strikes on Iran over the weekend.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell more than 4% to below $69 a barrel on Monday after Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iran over the weekend spared the country’s crude oil facilities and nuclear infrastructure, easing concerns about disruptions to energy supplies.
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