Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar hovers at its highest level in 10 months, shining amid the market’s gloom.
• Gold stays near its lowest level in six months as markets await US economic data.
• The US GDP growth rate for the second quarter, and weekly unemployment claims due later today.
• The US oil jumps on crude draw and global supply tightness. Brent crude trades at $94.97 and West Texas Intermediate at $93.49.
• Bitcoin bulls continue to push higher but face rejection, and the 100 SMA is the key.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

 

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GOLD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,877.25
First scenario: Buy gold on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1,978.70, targeting a price of $1,883 and then $1,887.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,872.83, targeting a price of $1,867.56 and then $1,862.55.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $93.36 per barrel

First scenario: Buying oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $93.79, targeting a price of $94.25 and then $94.78.

Alternative scenario: Selling oil on the break of $93.18, targeting a price of $92.73 and then $92.30.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish 

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.05056
First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.04946, targeting a price of $1.04786, and then $1.04613.

Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1.05176, targeting a price of $1.05363 and then $1.05573.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.21380
First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break when staying below $1.21165, targeting a price of $1.20839 and then $1.20545.

Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $1.21582, targeting a price of $1.21926 and then $1.22254.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $14,763
First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break when staying below $14,709, targeting a price of $14,655 and then $14,583.

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $14,790, targeting a price of $14,851 and then $14,914.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Germany: Annual inflation rate index at 15:00
• United States: Initial jobless claims index at 15:30
• United States: GDP growth rate index at 15:30
• United States: Speech by Jerome Powell at 23:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index settled above 106.5 on Thursday, hovering at its strongest level in ten months and tracking the rise of Treasury bond yields amid expectations that interest rates will remain high for an extended period.
• The US benchmark yield for 10 years jumped to around 4.6%, reaching its highest level since 2007, as rising oil prices sparked fears of more inflation, supporting the case for keeping monetary policy tight.
• Last week, the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but signaled another rate hike before the end of the year and less rate cuts than previously indicated for next year.
• The subsequent comments from several Fed officials also reinforced the idea that the central bank will need to raise interest rates more.
• Investors are now looking forward to US GDP and weekly jobless claims data on Thursday, as well as the Fed’s preferred personal consumption expenditures price index report on Friday for more evidence on the economy.
• Gold steadied on Thursday, although prices hovered near their lowest level in six months recorded in the previous session due to rising dollar and bond yields, as markets awaited economic data from the US looking for clues on the Fed’s interest rate path.
• US oil rose by about one dollar per barrel on Thursday, reaching its highest level in more than a year, as a sharp drop in US crude inventories exacerbated concerns about global supply shortages from OPEC+ cuts led by Saudi Arabia.