Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar rose as traders shrugged off U.S. manufacturing data and awaited the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge for clues on when the central bank might start cutting interest rates.
• Gold prices steadied as yields fell but were capped by a stronger dollar.
• Technical indicators suggest spot gold may retest support at $2,025 an ounce.
• Nine Federal Reserve officials are due to speak this week.
• Personal consumption expenditures inflation data is due on Thursday.
• Chinese yuan slips under economic pressure; U.S. data in focus.
• Oil falls from one-month highs
• Brent crude is trading at $81.00 and WTI crude is trading at $77.00.
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand holds interest rates at 5.50%.
• Coinbase Q4 revenue hits $292 million, shares up 48%.
• Bitcoin adds 12% on the week to reclaim $57,000 for the first time in two years.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $78.12 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest levels of $78.50, targeting a price of $78.97, then 79.53. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $77.82, targeting a price of $77.30, then 76.71.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend:- Bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08222

The first scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08388, targeting a price of 1.08573, then 1.08797. Alternative scenario: Sell the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08161, targeting a price of 1.08001, then 1.07788.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend:- Bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08222

The first scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08388, targeting a price of 1.08573, then 1.08797. Alternative scenario: Sell the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08161, targeting a price of 1.08001, then 1.07788.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26548

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.26361, targeting a price of 1.26164, then 1.25940. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a breaking point, and holding steady at a close above 1.26697, targeting a price of 1.26983, then 1.27204.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 17993

The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18029, targeting a price of 18068 then 18114. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 17970, targeting a price of 17928 then 17884.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• United States GDP (Q4): 16:30
• United States Crude Oil Inventories: 18:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• The dollar rose as traders shrugged off U.S. manufacturing data and awaited the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge for clues on when the central bank might start cutting interest rates.
• At the same time, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its interest rate on hold and issued dovish comments, sending the New Zealand dollar to a one-week low.
• The Australian dollar was also pinned near a more than one-week low after weaker-than-expected inflation data reinforced expectations that local interest rates are unlikely to rise much further.
• U.S. durable goods orders fell 6.1% last month, data showed on Tuesday, beating economists’ expectations for a 4.5% decline.
• However, markets were unfazed by the manufacturing figures, with focus on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index due on Thursday. Expectations are for a 0.4% increase.
• The CME’s FedWatch tool showed markets have largely priced in a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s March and May meetings. The probability of a cut in June is around 51%.
• Gold prices steadied on Wednesday, as lower U.S. Treasury yields partly offset a stronger dollar, while investors awaited key inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials this week to gauge when the central bank is likely to cut interest rates.
• West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped to around $78.5 a barrel on Wednesday, easing slightly from a one-month high in a potential technical correction, as investors continued to assess various supply and demand factors.