Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar is poised for weekly gains on the back of strong data, as additional evidence reinforced that the US economy has remained resilient.
• Gold is rising as the conflict in the Middle East dominates sentiment.Gold prices are on track for a third weekly gain amid tensions from the Middle East war.
• Platinum and palladium are likely to rise this week, while silver is expected to fall.
• Markets are looking to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index.
• Oil maintains its advance amid concerns of an escalation of the war between Israel and Hamas and disruption of supplies in the oil-rich region. Brent crude is trading at levels of $88.45 and West Texas Intermediate at levels of $84.35.
• Bitcoin price remains firm above $34,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,989.36

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1,990.44, targeting a price of $1,995.50 and then $2,002.44.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,982.21, targeting a price of $1,975.76 and then $1,968.52.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $84.40 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $84.80, targeting a price of $85.35 and then $85.85.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $84.18, targeting a price of $83.60 and then $83.08.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.05650

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.05518, targeting a price of $1.05358 and then $1.05167.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.05748, targeting a price of $1.05935 and then $1.06145.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.21328

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.21148, targeting a price of $1.20950 and then $1.20726.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.21484, targeting a price of $1.21769 and then $1.21991.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $14,322

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $14,285, targeting a price of $14,231 and then $14,159.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $14,366, targeting a price of $14,427 and then $14,490.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• United States: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index at 15:30.
• United States: Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index at 15:30.
• United States: Personal Income Index at 15:30.
• United States: Personal Spending Index at 15:30.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index held above 106.5 on Friday and is set to end the week higher as additional evidence that the US economy has remained resilient reinforced the view of higher long-term interest rates.
• In the third quarter, the US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 4.9%, comfortably beating expectations of 4.3%, supported primarily by strong consumer spending.
• In addition, durable goods orders saw a sharp jump of 4.7% in September, the largest increase since July 2020, far above market expectations of 1.7%.
• While it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its next policy meeting, it is expected to keep rates elevated for an extended period.
• The dollar has also been rising recently due to weakness in the euro, which is attributed to weak growth expectations in the euro zone, as the European Central Bank’s tightening cycle appears to be nearing its end.
• Gold prices are on track for a third consecutive weekly gain on Friday, as the conflict in the Middle East has led to increased investor attraction to the safe-haven metal despite the longer-term rise in US interest rates. 
• Oil prices rose in early Asian trading after falling overnight amid easing concerns about the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Concerns about a wider conflict in the Middle East have eased after the United States and other countries urged Israel to delay its ground invasion, according to OCBC analysts in a research note. They added that the bearish sentiment in financial markets and strong US GDP figures in the third quarter could lead the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for a longer period. Oil is still vulnerable to further selling pressure, but buyers should start to emerge, given that the short-term price peak appears to be in place.