enDaily Analysis 27/09/2023
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
- The dollar rises to its highest level in 10 months as interest rate tensions persist.
- Gold drops to its lowest level in over a month amid the issue of rising US long-term interest rates.
- Treasury bond yields at their highest level in 16 years.
- Oil prices rise as markets focus on supply shortage. Brent crude trades at $90.97 and West Texas Intermediate at $90.69.
- Kashkari: There is a 40% chance that the Federal Reserve will need higher interest rates “substantially”.
- Bitcoin price remains above $25,000, which is a strong support level for the rise in bitcoin prices.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bearish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $1,896.15
First scenario: Buy gold on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1,900.70, targeting a price of $1,905.08 and then $1,909.59.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,894.84, targeting a price of $1,889.57 and then $1,884.56.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.
CRUDE OIL
General trend: bearish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $90.70 per barrel
First scenario: Buy oil on the break when stable by closing the candle above $90.89, targeting a price of $91.35 and then $91.88.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $90.27, targeting a price of $89.83 and then $89.40.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.
EURUSD
General trend: bearish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $1.05602
First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.05508, targeting a price of $1.05348 and then $1.05175.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1.05738, targeting a price of $1.05925 and then $1.06135.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.
GBPUSD
General trend: bearish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $1.21448
First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break when staying below $1.21291, targeting a price of $1.20965 and then $1.20671.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $1.21708, targeting a price of $1.22052 and then $1.22380.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.
NAS100
General trend: bearish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $14,757
First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break when staying below $14,704, targeting a price of $14,650 and then $14,578.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $14,785, targeting a price of $14,846 and then $14,909.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- Germany: GfK Consumer Confidence Index at 9:00
- United States: Durable Goods Orders Index at 15:30
- United States: Crude Oil Inventories at 17:30
Fundamental Analysis
- The dollar rose to its highest level in 10 months against its major peers on Wednesday, sending the euro and the pound to their lowest levels in six months and pushing the yen deeper into the intervention zone, as markets were dominated by the possibility of longer US interest rate hikes.
- US Treasury bonds stabilized after heavy selling in recent days, although yields remained high and kept the dollar demand strong.
- The shock to the markets since last week was that the Federal Reserve’s speech was more hawkish than expected. It is likely that they will raise interest rates again.
- Gold prices fell to their lowest level in over a month on Wednesday, affected by the rise of the US dollar as markets made adjustments to the scenario of rising interest rates.
- Oil prices rose by about one dollar on Wednesday as markets focused on supply shortages ahead of winter and the “soft landing” of the US economy.
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