enDaily Analysis 26/09/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 100.9 on Thursday after rebounding in the previous session, as investors prepared for the latest weekly jobless claims report for updates on the health of the labor market.
-Gold settles at record highs
-Several Federal Reserve officials this week called for a cautious approach to policy adjustments after cutting interest rates by about 50 basis points earlier this month.
However, markets are pricing in a higher probability of a rate cut in November, with Fed funds futures indicating a 62% chance of another 50 basis point cut.
Markets are now looking ahead to a series of US macroeconomic data for further guidance, including the personal consumption expenditure report, final Q2 GDP figures, initial weekly jobless claims, and durable goods orders.
Investors are also closely watching additional speeches from Federal Open Market Committee members, including a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell later today.
Meanwhile, increasing violence and the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East continued to boost gold’s status as a safe haven.
Gold may rise further amid Middle East tensions
-Gold is likely to trade higher on the back of heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. He added that the escalating conflict between Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel is supporting the safe-haven metal amid growing fears of a wider conflict.
Investors will also be focusing on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell due later in the day for further hints on the policy outlook, along with U.S. inflation data on Friday.
Asian stocks bucked the global trend to extend a China-led rally on Thursday, supported by continued optimism over the country’s aggressive stimulus package and news that more support could be on the way.
-Brent continues to decline, with Brent crude trading at $73.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $67.00.
-Demand concerns remain, particularly in China, despite recent monetary support measures aimed at stimulating activity in the world’s largest oil consumer.
-Moreover, Libya’s rival factions have agreed on a process to appoint a central bank governor, which could ease the oil revenue crisis and restore exports.
The hurricane that threatened the US Gulf Coast moved towards Florida, away from oil and gas areas.
Meanwhile, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed that US crude inventories fell by 4.5 million barrels last week, exceeding the expected decline of 1.4 million barrels.
-Also limiting the decline is the risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East amid escalating violence in the region.
-Bitcoin price started a downside correction from the $64,750 resistance level. Bitcoin is still above the $62,500 support level and may target a new high.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2661.04
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2667.30, targeting 2673.73 and 2680.86
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2656.27, targeting 2649.47 and then 2641.64
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $68.07 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $68.27 level, targeting $68.74 and then $69.30.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $67.59 levels, targeting $67.07 and then $66.48.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.11546
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.11689, targeting 1.11874 and then 1.12098.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.11462, targeting 1.11302 and then 1.11089.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.33464
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.33626, targeting the price of 1.33867 and then 1.34153.
Alternative scenario: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.33326, targeting 1.33085 and then 1.32863
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20442
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20491, targeting 20595 then 20713
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 20334 with target price of 20210 then 20103
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q3) 10:30
SNB Press Conference 11:00
From USA GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 15:30
From the United States of America unemployment claims rates 15:30
From the United States of America, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks at 16:20
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 100.9 on Thursday after rebounding in the previous session, as investors prepared for the latest weekly jobless claims report for updates on the health of the labor market.
Durable goods orders for August and the final reading of second-quarter GDP are also due later today.
The index rose 0.6% on Wednesday as Treasury yields rose on renewed inflation concerns and continued uncertainty over a Federal Reserve rate cut.
This was in line with Fed Governor Bowman’s signal that upside risks to inflation warrant a cautious approach to policy adjustments after the aggressive 50 basis point cut earlier this month.
The market gauge of inflation will be updated on Friday with the release of the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of price growth.
The US dollar rose broadly, with the most buying activity seen against the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
Gold held steady near $2,660 an ounce on Thursday, trading at record highs, as markets continued to assess the size of the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cuts in its ongoing easing cycle.
Brent crude futures fell below $73 a barrel on Thursday, extending their decline of more than 2% since the previous session, as lingering demand concerns outweighed a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories.
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