Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The US dollar fell by about 0.3% against its rivals on Tuesday as investors became cautious ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) report for February.
• Gold holds tight range as focus turns to US inflation data.
• Fed’s Goolsbee sees three rate cuts this year.
• Traders see 74% chance of Fed rate cut in June.
• “Markets are still looking for imminent rate cuts from the Fed. June seems to be the most likely time when they are expected to pull the trigger for the first rate cut.”
• Fed Governor Lisa Cook cautioned that the US central bank needs to proceed with caution when it decides when to start cutting rates.
• Investors are now waiting for the US core PCE data due on Friday to see if it could change the Fed’s expectations of three rate cuts this year.
• The PCE price index is expected to rise 0.3% in February, which would keep the annual pace at 2.8%.
• Many markets will be closed on Good Friday when the PCE data is due, so the full reaction is expected to be seen next week.
• Asian stocks rose on Tuesday but failed to break this month’s highs as mixed messages from US Fed policymakers left doubts about the timing of interest rate cuts.
• Oil prices continue their upward momentum amid expectations of shrinking supply, with Brent crude trading at $86.00 and WTI at $81.00.
• Russia has asked its oil companies to cut production to meet OPEC’s target of 9 million barrels per day. In late February, Russia was producing about 9.5 million barrels per day.
• At the same time, Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries continue. The Russian Kuibyshev refinery was forced to shut down half of its capacity after a fire broke out there on Saturday morning.
• In a sign of further tightening supplies, Macquarie expects US refinery crude runs to rise by 300,000 barrels per day next week against a domestic supply decline of 500,000 barrels per day.
• Bitcoin price is on the rise and is now trading above the $70,000 resistance zone. BTC could continue to rally towards $73,000 and $75,000 in the near term.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2171.44

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2175.27, with a target price of 2180.33 and 2187.28. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2167.04, with a price target of 2160.59 and then 2153.24.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $81.78 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $82.22, targeting a price of $82.69, then 83.25. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $81.54, targeting a price of $81.02, then 80.43.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08402

The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.08265, targeting a price of 1.08105, then 1.07892. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.08492, targeting a price of 1.08677, then 1.08901.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26400

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.26204, targeting the price of 1.26006 then 1.25782. Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold firm by closing above

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18538

The first scenario: Buying the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18564, targeting the price of 18603 then 18649. Alternative scenario: Selling the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18505, targeting the price of 18463 then 18419.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• US CB Consumer Confidence Index (March) 5:00 PM

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• The dollar index fell below 104.3 on Monday, giving up some of the gains it made last week as investors became cautio
• The dollar is on the decline on Tuesday, due to profit-taking and partly pressured by a slightly higher yen, as Japanese government officials continued their efforts to defend the currency.
• The dollar is steady in Asia after falling 0.2% during an intraday session, amid profit-taking
• Federal rate cut expectations are key for the US dollar, with uncertainty prevailing at the moment
• A 19.62 basis point rate cut on June 12
• Traders see a 70% chance that the Fed will start cutting rates in June, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion.
• The next move is likely to hinge on the release of the personal consumption expenditures index this week. Evidence of further slowing inflation in the US, which would ease concerns about rising prices or at least stabilize them at a higher level, would be very bullish for gold.
• Gold prices remained stuck in a narrow range on Tuesday as investors’ focus shifted to US inflation data due later this week, which could shed more light on the timing of the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year.
• Oil prices were on track to rise for a second straight day on Tuesday after settling more than $1 higher amid expectations of tightening supplies due to Russian production cuts and attacks on Russian refineries.