Daily Market Analysis

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

• The dollar index settled around 103.5 on Friday as investors avoided making big bets ahead of a key inflation report that could provide clues on the direction of US interest rates.

• The dollar is approaching 6-week highs
• Gold is heading for a second weekly decline on the back of the strength of the US economy and the strong dollar
• US personal consumption spending data is scheduled for release today

Smart technical reports

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

GOLD

General trend: bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2022.37 The first scenario: selling gold at a fraction and holding below 2018.39, with a target price of 2011.94 and 2004.59

Alternative scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2026.62, with a target price of 2031.68 and then 2038.62.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

CRUDE OIL

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $76.73 per barrel. First scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest levels of $77.15, targeting a price of $77.62, then 78.19. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $76.48, targeting a price of $75.95, then 75.37.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

EURUSD

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08358 First scenario: Sell the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08274, targeting a price of 1.08114, then 1.07901. Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08501, targeting a price of 1.08686, then 1.08910.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

GBPUSD

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26955 First scenario: Selling the pound for dollars at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.26860, targeting the price of 1.26662 then 1.26438 Alternative scenario: Buying the pound for dollars at a fraction and holding at a close above 1.27195, targeting the price of 1.27481 then 1.27703

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

NAS100

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 17484 First scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 17519, targeting a price of 17558 then 17605 Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 17460 targeting a price of 17418 then 17375

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

• From the United States of America Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Monthly) (December) 16:30

• From the United States of America Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (annual) (December) 16:30
• From Canada’s general government budget (annual) (November) 19:00

Fundamental Analysis

• The dollar index settled around 103.5 on Friday as investors avoided making big bets ahead of a key inflation report that could provide clues on the direction of US interest rates.
• Meanwhile, the dollar gained some ground on Thursday after data showed the US economy remained resilient despite higher borrowing costs, growing 3.3% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, above expectations of 2%.
• The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates steady when it meets next week, but traders will be focusing on comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for hints about the start of an easing cycle.
• Elsewhere, the euro fell in value after the European Central Bank kept interest rates steady as widely expected, but traders bet it would start cutting interest rates in April.
• Gold prices are headed for a second straight weekly decline in the face of a resilient US economy that has kept the dollar near multi-week highs, while focus turns to the headline inflation reading due later in the day.
• Oil prices fell today, Friday, after rising to their highest levels since December in the previous session, but they are heading for the largest weekly gain since October, as positive US economic growth and indications of Chinese stimulus boosted fuel demand sentiment.