Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar held its gains thanks to strong purchasing managers’ index data.
• Gold gains rose as U.S. Treasury yields fell, and the focus remained on the Middle East. Gold may struggle to break through the $2,000 per ounce level.
• U.S. third-quarter GDP figures are due out on Thursday, and the personal consumption expenditures price index is due out on Friday.
• Oil prices stabilized as market expectations were awaited. Brent crude traded at $86.85 and West Texas Intermediate at $83.44.
• Bitcoin prices are above $34,000 and are expected to continue to rise in the coming days.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,973.47

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1,977.84, targeting a price of $1,982.90 and then $1,989.85.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,969.61, targeting a price of $1,963.16 and then $1,955.92.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $83.15 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $83.63, targeting a price of $84.18 and then $84.68.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $83.01, targeting a price of $82.43 and then $81.91.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.05994

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.05904, targeting a price of $1.05744 and then $1.05552.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.06134, targeting a price of $1.06321 and then $1.06530.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.21655

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.21524, targeting a price of $1.21326 and then $1.21102.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.21861, targeting a price of $1.22146 and then $1.22367.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $14,767

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $14,714, targeting a price of $14660 and then $14,588.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $14,795, targeting a price of $14,856 and then $14,919.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Germany: Ifo Business Climate Index at 11:00
• Canada: Interest Rate Decision at 17:00
• U.S.: New Home Sales at 17:00
• U.S.: Speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at 23:35

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar held steady above 106 on Wednesday after rising 0.6% in the previous session, supported by strong data for manufacturing and services activity in the United States, which provided further evidence of the resilience of the US economy.
• The dollar also benefited from weakness in the euro amid bleak growth forecasts for the bloc following the unexpected contraction in business activity in the euro area.
• The investors are now looking to the first estimate of third-quarter GDP growth and personal consumption expenditures inflation data in the United States for further guidance.
• The investors also continued to assess expectations for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, ahead of the next week’s meeting. It is widely expected that the central bank will keep interest rates unchanged at the upcoming meeting, but it might keep rates elevated for some time.
• The dollar held onto its recent gains against the euro and the pound, while it slipped slightly against the yen.
• Gold prices rose on Wednesday, supported by the decline in US Treasury yields, but it lacked the momentum to rally further as signs of fatigue appeared in safe-haven demand after world leaders sought to prevent the Israeli-Hamas conflict from escalating.
• West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled above $83 a barrel on Wednesday, as investors weighed signs of US supply shortages against mixed data on private sector activity in major economies.
• A report by the industry showed that US crude stockpiles fell by about 2.7 million barrels last week, defying expectations for an increase of 200,000 barrels.
• Official data from the US Energy Information Administration is due later on Wednesday.
• Investors also digested data that showed business activity in the euro area unexpectedly contracted in October, raising concerns about a recession.
• On the other hand, business activity in the United States accelerated this month amid a faster pace of expansion in both the manufacturing and services sectors.
• Meanwhile, the US oil benchmark has lost more than 5% over the past three sessions amid growing optimism about the possibility of containing the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
• The United States also lifted broad sanctions on OPEC member Venezuela in response to the agreement by Venezuelan leaders to hold fair elections next year.