enDaily Analysis 25/09/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held around 100.3 on Wednesday, hovering near its lowest since July 2023 as traders ramped up bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut after weak data on consumer sentiment.
Gold heads to new highs
Data released Tuesday pointed to a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. consumer confidence, reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s dovish view and in line with policymakers’ previous signals about another interest rate cut.
Markets are now looking ahead to additional economic data this week for further guidance, including reports on personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation.
Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China announced its largest stimulus package since 2020 on Tuesday, which includes interest rate cuts.
Moreover, gold’s status as a safe haven has been strengthened by the escalation of violence in the Middle East.
According to the World Gold Council, central bank gold purchases increased in the previous quarter, as did the use of technology. The US elections are also likely to impact gold. More importantly, geopolitical risks can also affect gold prices.
-Gold is steady at the start of the Asian session, supported by the prospect of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. According to Fed Funds Futures, a 75 basis point rate cut is expected by the end of the year,
-With two meetings remaining, that would mean a 50 basis point rate cut either in November or December. Analysts add that gold benefits from its role as a store of value in times of inflation and uncertainty, and as an interest-free investment in times of low interest rates.
Chinese stocks made quick gains on Wednesday, extending their stimulus-fueled rally into a second day, even as stocks in the rest of the region struggled and crude oil retreated from multi-week highs.
-Brent swings as China stimulus prospects rise, Brent crude trades at $74.00, WTI at $71.00
China’s central bank on Tuesday announced its biggest stimulus in four years to revive the economy and meet growth targets, improving the demand outlook for the world’s biggest oil importer.
Meanwhile, concerns are growing about supply disruptions in the Middle East as the risk of a wider conflict grows with escalating violence.
Supply concerns also grew as Gulf of Mexico oil producers evacuated drilling rigs and halted production due to a strong threat of a second hurricane in two weeks.
-The American Petroleum Institute data also showed that US crude inventories fell by 4.339 million barrels last week, the largest decline since early August and far exceeding market expectations for a decrease of 1.1 million barrels.
In the Middle East, Israeli air strikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, which killed hundreds of people, have raised fears of a wider regional conflict that could drag in Iran, a key OPEC member.
In addition to supply concerns, US oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico have begun evacuating platforms and halting production as a powerful hurricane threatens to disrupt offshore operations for the second time in two weeks.
-Bitcoin price is rising again above the $63,800 resistance level. Bitcoin may gain momentum if it surpasses the $64,750 resistance area and then $65,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2653.87
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2661.68, targeting 2668.11 and 2675.24
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2650.30 with a target price of 2643.86 and then 2636.02
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $71.00 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking the $71.34 level, targeting $71.81, then
72.38 Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $70.71 levels, targeting $70.14 and then $69.56
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.11914
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.12059, targeting 1.12244 and then 1.12468
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.11832, targeting 1.11672 and then 1.11459.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.34010
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.34161, targeting the price of 1.34401 and then 1.34688
Alternative scenario: Sell GBP/USD with a break and stability with a close below 1.33861, targeting 1.33620 and then 1.33398
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20078
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20169, targeting 20272 then 20390
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 20012 with target price 19887 then 19780
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From USA New Home Sales (August) 17:00
US Crude Oil Inventory 17:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held around 100.3 on Wednesday, hovering near its lowest since July 2023 as traders ramped up bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut after weak data on consumer sentiment.
Markets are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by an additional 200 basis points before reaching its final rate next year, which is loosely in line with the Fed’s dot plot.
Investors now look to new home sales data on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims figures on Thursday, as well as the highly anticipated personal spending report on Friday to further guide the outlook.
The dollar was also pressured by risk appetite after China unveiled a sweeping monetary stimulus package to boost growth, with stocks, the yuan and copper benefiting most.
Gold rose above $2,660 an ounce on Wednesday, hitting another record high, as expectations of more monetary easing and rising geopolitical tensions increased the precious metal’s appeal.
Brent crude futures rose 1.7% to settle at $75.2 a barrel on Tuesday, driven by sweeping economic stimulus measures in China and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. China’s central bank unveiled its biggest stimulus package since the pandemic, including increased financing and sharp interest rate cuts, in a bid to revive growth amid fears of a prolonged economic slowdown.
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