Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The US dollar rises on the back of the Fed’s hawkish outlook.
• Gold falls as markets assess the Fed’s interest rate expectations.Fed officials warn of more interest rate hikes to curb inflation.
• SPDR Gold Trust holdings reach their lowest levels since January 2020.
• Oil rises as tight supply returns to focus. Brent crude trades at $92.35 and West Texas Intermediate at $89.91.
• Most Asian currencies decline due to the Fed’s hawkish statements.
• Bitcoin price drops and it seems that the bears are not done yet. Bitcoin price moves down again below the support level of $26,500. BTC remains at risk of more losses below the support level of $26,000 in the near term.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

 

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GOLD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,922.85
First scenario: Buy gold on the break when stable by closing the candle above 1,926.24, targeting a price of $1,930.63 and then $1,935.13.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,920.38, targeting a price of $1,915.10 and then $1,910.10.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $89.79 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $90.23, targeting a price of $90.69 and then $91.22.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $89.17, targeting a price of $89.17 and then $88.74.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.06461
First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.06391, targeting a price of $1.06231 and then $1.06058.

Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1.06621, targeting a price of $1.06808 and then $1.07018.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.22388
First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break when staying below $1.22208, targeting a price of $1.21882 and then $1.21589.

Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $1.22625, targeting a price of $1.22969 and then $1.23297.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $14,926
First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break when staying below $14,872, targeting a price of $14,818 and then $14,746.

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $14,953, targeting a price of $15,013 and then $15,077.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Germany: Ifo Business Climate Index at 11:00
• US: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index at 17:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index rose to 105.6 on Monday, staying near its highest level since early March, as the Federal Reserve maintained its hawkish outlook on monetary policy due to persistent inflation.
• The US central bank kept interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting in September, but signaled another rate hike before the end of the year and less rate cuts than previously indicated for next year.
• Data released on Friday also showed that US services sector growth slowed to its lowest level in eight months and manufacturing output continued to contract due to higher borrowing costs.
• In recent sessions, the dollar gained more against the Japanese yen, as the Bank of Japan remained committed to its ultra-easing monetary policy.
• The dollar also continued to rise against the riskier currencies, as risk-averse sentiment spread in the markets.
• Gold fell on Monday after posting a slight gain of 0.1% last week, as investors assessed the warning from US Fed officials of more interest rate hikes ahead of the consumer inflation gauge due later this week.
• Oil prices rose on Monday, as investors focused on expectations of tighter supply after Moscow imposed a temporary ban on fuel exports while remaining concerned about higher interest rates that could weaken demand.