enDaily Analysis 25/07/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index fell below 104.3 on Thursday, falling for a second straight session as investors braced for key U.S. economic data that could guide the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
Gold falls as investors await key US data
Markets are awaiting the US GDP reading due at 1230 GMT and personal consumption expenditures data – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation – on Friday.
-Traders are expecting the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September after a long wait. The appeal of non-yielding bullion tends to shine in a low interest rate environment. (FEDWATCH)
The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed in June for the first time this year amid a broad-based rebound in exports, data showed on Wednesday, but that may not have been enough to prevent trade from remaining a drag on economic growth in the second quarter.
Newmont Gold Mining Co.’s second-quarter earnings beat Wall Street estimates, as the world’s largest gold miner benefited from strong production and higher prices.
Gold prices are set to hit new record highs in the coming months while platinum and palladium will remain below $1,000 an ounce through 2024, a Reuters poll showed.
Asian stocks were hurt on Thursday as a slide in global technology shares sent investors fleeing to less risky assets, including short-term bonds, the yen and the Swiss franc.
-Google: Alphabet revenue beats estimates despite growing AI threats. Stock falls after earnings.
Tesla shares fall 8% as profits halve. Elon Musk sees electric carmaker valued at $5 trillion
Oil falls on concerns over weak Chinese demand and Middle East ceasefire talks,
with Brent trading at $81.00 and WTI at $76.00
Benchmark crude prices rose on Wednesday after back-to-back sessions of declines after the U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.7 million barrels last week. That compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.6 million-barrel draw.
U.S. gasoline inventories fell by 5.6 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 400,000-barrel draw. Distillate stocks fell by 2.8 million barrels, compared with expectations for a 250,000-barrel rise, the Energy Information Administration said.
-According to government data, China’s oil imports and refining operations this year are set to decline compared to 2023 due to weak fuel demand amid slowing economic growth.
-Bitcoin price started to decline again below the $66,500 level. Bitcoin is gaining bearish momentum and may return to the $63,200 support level.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2372.81
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2379.45, targeting 2385.87 and 2393.00
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2368.06, targeting 2361.62 and then 2355.39
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $76.62 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $76.21 levels, targeting $75.69 and then $75.11.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $76.89 level, targeting $77.36 and then $77.93.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08430
Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.08285, targeting 1.08125 and then 1.07912.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.08513, targeting 1.08697 and then 1.08922.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.28928
Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the 1.28740 level, targeting the price of 1.28543 and then 1.28319
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.29076, targeting 1.29362 and then 1.29583.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19247
Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 19205, targeting a price of 19148 and then 19097
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with break and hold with close above 19306 price 19376 then 19456
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From the United States of America United States – President Joe Biden’s speech 3:00
-From the United States of America GDP (quarterly) (Q2) 15:30
-From the United States of America Unemployment Claims Rate 15:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index fell below 104.3 on Thursday, falling for a second straight session as investors braced for key U.S. economic data that could guide the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
The latest weekly jobless claims and preliminary second-quarter GDP figures are due later today, while the June personal spending price index report will follow on Friday.
U.S. private sector activity remained strong, driven by faster growth in the services sector, while manufacturing unexpectedly contracted for the first time this year, S&P Global’s flash purchasing managers’ indexes showed on Wednesday.
Markets are still betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with at least one more cut possible before the end of the year.
The dollar weakened the most against the yen amid speculation that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again next week.
Meanwhile, the US dollar continued to rise against the Australian and New Zealand dollars as investors reduced their holdings of riskier assets.
Gold prices were little changed on Thursday as investors awaited U.S. economic data to gauge the timing of an interest rate cut by the central bank.
Oil prices fell on Thursday as concerns about weak demand in China, the world’s biggest crude importer, and expectations of a ceasefire in the Middle East offset gains in the previous session after a drop in U.S. inventories.
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