Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar fell against other currencies as Treasury yields declined to their weakest levels in a month.
• Gold gained on the back of falling US bond yields and uncertainty in the Middle East.
• The US third-quarter GDP figures are due out on Thursday, and the personal consumption expenditures price index is due out on Friday.
• Oil prices recovered some ground amid uncertainty over the war between Hamas and Israel, with Brent crude trading at $90.05 and West Texas Intermediate trading at $85.44.
• Bitcoin rose by more than 15% and is trading near the resistance level of $35,000. BTC could correct in the short term before starting another rally.

---

 

Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

---

 

GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,976.29

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1,980.77, targeting a price of $1,985.83 and then $1,992.77.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,972.54, targeting a price of $1,966.09 and then $1,958.85.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

---

 

CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $85.41 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $85.89, targeting a price of $86.44 and then $86.94.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $85.27, targeting a price of $84.69 and then $84.17.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

---

 

EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.06795

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.06669, targeting a price of $1.06509 and then $1.06318.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.06899, targeting a price of $1.07086 and then $1.07269.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

---

 

GBPUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.22705

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.22498, targeting a price of $1.22300 and then $1.22077.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.22835, targeting a price of $1.23120 and then $1.23341.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

---

 

NAS100

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $14,781

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $14,714, targeting a price of $14660 and then $14,588.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $14,795, targeting a price of $14856 and then $14,919.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

---

 

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• Germany: Claimant Count Change at 9:00
• UK: Unemployment Rate and Employment Change at 9:00
• Europe: Manufacturing PMI at 11:00
• UK: Manufacturing PMI at 11:30
• Canada: New Housing Price Index at 15:30
• U.S.: Services PMI, Manufacturing PMI and Composite PMI at 16:45
• U.S.: Crude Oil Inventories at 23:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index fell below 105.5 on Tuesday, hitting its weakest level in a month, tracking declines in Treasury yields as investors continued to assess the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook.
• The benchmark U.S. 10-year yield retreated from the 5% level on Monday after Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman revealed he had covered his short position on bonds due to rising geopolitical risks.
• Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said policy is not too tight at the moment and that the Fed is moving carefully and will decide next steps based on incoming data, evolving outlooks and the balance of risks.
• Investors are now looking to U.S. GDP data and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge this week for further guidance ahead of the central bank’s policy decision next week.
• Gold prices rebounded on Tuesday as U.S. Treasury yields declined, while investors awaited economic data to guide interest rates and monitored rising tensions in the Middle East.
• The yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes fell after briefly rising above 5% on Monday, further threatening to slow economic growth due to higher borrowing costs.
• Oil prices rose on Tuesday, recouping some of the previous day’s losses, as investors remained concerned about the potential for the Israel-Hamas war to escalate into a wider conflict in the oil-producing region, which could lead to potential supply disruptions.