enDaily Analysis 24/07/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held onto its recent advance to around 104.5 on Wednesday, approaching a two-week high as investors looked ahead to the latest U.S. manufacturing and services activity data to gauge the health of the economy.
Gold prices rise as investors focus on US economic data
Economists say Fed will cut rates twice this year, near-term gold outlook remains positive, spot gold could rise to $2,432 – Technical Analysis
Investors are looking ahead to key U.S. data this week, including Thursday’s second-quarter GDP reading and Friday’s June PCE price index figure, to provide further clues about the timeline for rate cuts.
“If the GDP or core PCE numbers produce an upward impulse, this could be a stumbling block for gold in the near term due to the strength of the dollar,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
“However, the near-term outlook for gold remains constructive from a fundamental standpoint, given that the Federal Reserve appears on the cusp of cutting interest rates.”
A growing majority of economists in a Reuters poll said the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates only twice this year, in September and December, as strong demand from U.S. consumers prompts a cautious approach despite falling inflation.
Bullion prices hit an all-time high of $2,483.60 last week amid growing bets on interest rate cuts. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said that spot gold may break the resistance level at $2,417 and rise further to $2,432.
Meanwhile, India has cut import duties on gold and silver from 15% to 6%, which ANZ Bank said would support jewellery manufacturing in the world’s second-largest bullion consumer and add to an already favourable backdrop for demand.
Asian stocks fell on Wednesday after weak earnings from U.S. tech giants Tesla and Alphabet dampened risk appetite, while the yen rose to a seven-week high ahead of a central bank meeting next week where interest rate hikes remain on the table.
Oil prices rise as US crude inventories fall, with Brent crude trading at $81.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $76.00.
– Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that oil inventories fell by about 3.9 million barrels last week, which represents the fourth consecutive week of declines, and exceeding market expectations for a decrease of 2.5 million barrels.
-Moreover, the risk of a short-term supply disruption provided some support to oil prices, as wildfires in Canada continue to threaten more than 10% of the region’s oil production.
Meanwhile, renewed optimism over ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas put downward pressure on prices after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated that a ceasefire agreement could be taking shape.
Bitcoin price struggled to break below the $68,500 resistance area. Bitcoin price is correcting its gains and could fall further below the $65,500 support area.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2416.17
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2421.55, targeting 2427.98 and 2435.11
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2410.17, targeting 2403.72 and then 2397.49
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $76.89 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $76.68 levels, targeting $76.16 and then $75.57.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $77.36 level, targeting $77.82 and then $78.39.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08436
Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD after breaking 1.08378, targeting 1.08218 and then 1.08005.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.08605, targeting 1.08790 and then 1.09014.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.28922
Scenario 1: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability below the 1.28740 level, targeting the price of 1.28543 and then 1.28319
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.29076, targeting 1.29362 and then 1.29583.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19714
Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 19690, targeting a price of 19633 and then 19582
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with break and hold with close above 19792 price 19861 then 19942
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From USA Manufacturing PMI (July) 16:45
-From USA Services PMI (July) 16:45
-From Canada Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision 16:45
-From USA New Home Sales (June) 17:00
-From USA US Crude Oil Inventory 17:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held onto its recent advance to around 104.5 on Wednesday, approaching a two-week high as investors looked ahead to the latest U.S. manufacturing and services activity data to gauge the health of the economy.
A preliminary reading of second-quarter GDP and the June personal spending price index report are also due later this week.
The dollar also found support from the so-called Trump trade, where policies under a potential second Trump presidency are seen as inflationary.
Former President Donald Trump continues to lead the race ahead of the November election, though Vice President Kamala Harris has begun to gain ground after launching her campaign in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
On the monetary policy front, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to begin cutting interest rates in September amid slowing inflation, with two more cuts expected before the end of the year.
The dollar rose against most major currencies, but fell against the yen.
Gold prices rose slightly on Wednesday, as investors awaited U.S. economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s timetable for interest rate cuts.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose above $77 a barrel on Wednesday after falling for four straight sessions, driven by a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories.
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