Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index settled around 103.5 on Wednesday, hovering near six-week highs, as stronger-than-expected US economic data and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials dampened expectations for an interest rate cut in March.

• Gold declines as strong US data weakens bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

• The US flash PMI report is scheduled to be released today.
• Asian stocks gain thanks to China’s potential rescue package.

• The Fed’s first cut is now expected to take place in May with a probability of 88%.

• The companies will release their quarterly earnings, the most important of which is Tesla, Inc., and the markets are anticipating very important events today: IBM, ASML, and others.

• Oil prices decline due to weak demand and the strength of the dollar, with Brent crude trading at $79.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude trading at $74.00.

• Bitcoin price fell towards the $38,500 support area. BTC is trying to make a rally and may have difficulty rising above the $40,500 resistance level

 

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved according to the technical analysis may be between 60% and 75%. In the event that the first scenario fails, here the probability of achieving the second scenario becomes with certainty rates between 60% and 75%.

75% The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the expectation from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered an alternative to the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to help the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classic technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2027.02
The first scenario: Buy gold at a fraction and hold above 2030.27, with a target price of 2036.33 and 2042.27. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a fraction and hold below 2022.04, with a target price of 2015.59 and then 2008.24.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $74.50 per barrel
The first scenario: Buy oil at a break and hold steady by closing the candle at the highest levels of $74.67, targeting a price of $75.14, then 75.70.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $73.99 level, targeting $73.47, then 72.89.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages is likely to rise

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08649 The first scenario: sell the euro to the dollar at a break of 1.08513, targeting a price of 1.08353, then
1.08140 Alternative scenario: Buy Euro/Dollar at a break and hold by closing a candle above 1.08740, targeting a price of 1.08925 then 1.09149

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages is likely to fall

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.27060
The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.26819, targeting the price of 1.26621 then 1.26397. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a break and holding steady with a close above 1.27155, targeting the price of 1.27441 then 1.27662.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages is likely to fall

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 17619
The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 17639, targeting a price of 17678 then 17725. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 17580, targeting a price of 17538 then 17495.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages is likely to rise

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

• From USA Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (January) 17:45
• From USA Services PMI (January) 17:45
• Interest decision issued by the Central Bank of Canada 1
• US crude oil inventory 18:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index settled around 103.5 on Wednesday, hovering near its highest levels in six weeks, as stronger US economic data led to expectations and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials weaken expectations for an interest rate cut in March.

• Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Dale said on Friday that she believes the US economy and monetary policy are in good shape.

• “Good situation” It is too early to believe that interest rate cuts are imminent.

• Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also said last week that policymakers would move “cautiously and slowly” on policy.

• At the same time, December retail sales came in stronger than expected and University of Michigan consumer confidence rose to 78.8 in January 2024, the highest level since July 2021.

• Markets now see less than a 50% chance of a Fed rate cut in March, down significantly from the two-thirds chance seen a week ago, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

• Oil prices fell on Wednesday, weighed down by concerns about weak demand and a stronger dollar, although rising geopolitical tensions limited losses.

• Oil prices today, Tuesday, are volatile and dangerous due to oil rising 2 percent due to supply disruptions in Russia and America, and traders are weighing a group of conflicting concerns about the supply from Russia, with increasing tensions in the Middle East and cold weather problems that disrupt production in the United States.