Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index reaches its highest level in 27 weeks.
• Gold is challenging the strength of the dollar, and yields are reaching their peaks as global interest rates rise.
• Oil prices are on the rise, with supply concerns outweighing demand fears, with Brent crude trading at $92.52 and West Texas Intermediate at $89.73.
• Bitcoin’s price is once again moving downward from the resistance level of $27,500. BTC could extend its decline and revisit the support zone at $25,400.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, ranging from 60% to 75%. If the first scenario falls short, there is a 60% to 75% chance of the second one occurring.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario trigger level, at this point, the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

 

 

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GOLD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $1,924.05
First scenario: Buy gold on the break when stable by closing the candle above 1,926.62, targeting a price of $1,931.01 and then $1,935.50.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,920.76, targeting a price of $1,915.48 and then $1,910.48.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

 

General trend: bullish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $90.00 per barrel
First scenario: Buy oil on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $90.23, targeting a price of $90.69 and then $91.22.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $89.61, targeting a price of $89.17 and then $88.74.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $1.06538
First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.0639, targeting a price of $1.06231 and then $1.06058.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1.06621, targeting a price of $1.06808 and then $1.07018.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $1.22777
First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break when staying below $1.22622, targeting a price of $1.22296 and then $1.2202.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $1.23039, targeting a price of $1.23383 and then $1.23711.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

 

 

 

General trend: bearish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $14,900
First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break when staying below $14,844, targeting a price of $14,790 and then $14,718.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $14,925, targeting a price of $14,986 and then $15,049.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• UK: Manufacturing PMI. 10 30
• Europe: Manufacturing PMI. 11:30
• Canada: Retail Sales Index. 15:30
• United States: Manufacturing PMI. 16:45
• United States: Services PMI.16:45

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

The dollar benefits from weak European PMI data.

Gold prices rose on Friday despite pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar and bond yields, as investors assessed major central banks’ decisions to stand pat on interest rates as a sign of imminent global economic pain.

Rising oil prices are expected to worsen India’s fiscal and current account deficits – market talk.

Higher global crude oil prices are likely to worsen India’s fiscal and current account deficits, though they may not have an immediate inflationary impact, analysts at Nomura Research say in a note.

They say it is unlikely that the Indian government will raise gasoline and diesel prices ahead of elections. Stable domestic fuel prices mean that “oil marketing companies will bear the costs in the short term, and the government will eventually bear them through higher subsidies”.

This exposes the fiscal deficit target of 5.9% of GDP for fiscal year 2024 to risk and is likely to widen the current account deficit to around 1.9% of GDP in the second half of 2023 from 0.2% of GDP in the quarter from January to March, Nomura says. However, it should ease the Reserve Bank of India’s efforts to control inflation, which could lead to an extension of the pause period in interest rates.