Daily Market Analysis

 

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

 

• The dollar index retreated to around 106 today, Monday, but remained near its highest level in six months as strong US economic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials boosted expectations that the central bank will delay interest rate cuts, with some analysts saying the Fed may not ease at all this year.
• Gold prices fell as tensions in the Middle East eased. Tehran downplayed the importance of Israeli retaliatory strikes. Investors are once again attracted to higher-risk assets.
• Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data is due for release on Friday.
• Tehran downplayed the importance of the Israeli drone retaliatory strike on Iran, in what appears to be a move to avoid regional escalation.
• Gold fell on Monday after rising to $2417.59 in the previous session, a level not far from the record high of $2431.29 set on April 12.
• “Right now, there’s a lack of catalyst to really push gold prices higher,” said economist Kelvin Wong. “At this stage, it seems to us that the market is now getting closer to realizing the carrying cost of holding gold.”
• Asian stocks recouped some of their losses and bond yields rose as fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East receded, with investors once again attracted to riskier assets.
• Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said progress on reducing inflation has “stalled” this year, echoing other Fed officials who believe interest rates will need to stay high for longer to control price pressures again.
• The Chinese yuan falls to a five-month low as the dollar remains strong.
• Neither Iran nor Israel appears interested in any further escalation of the unprecedented hostilities that occurred last week, and investors seem keen to return to risk, reducing their holdings of safe-haven assets such as bonds, gold, and the dollar.
• This doesn’t mean everything has calmed down. A US base in Syria was hit by a rocket attack on Sunday, apparently by Hezbollah fighters stationed in Iraq.
• Outside the Middle East, other pressures on global stocks – which pushed them to their worst week in over a year – remain, namely the subsequent Federal Reserve rate cuts and caution over chip sector earnings.
• Oil prices fall as tensions between Iran and Israel ease. Brent crude is trading around $86.00, and West Texas Intermediate is around $81.00.
• Explosions were heard at an airport in the Iranian city of Isfahan, but the cause was not immediately known. CNN reported that several flights had been diverted over Iranian airspace.
• Asian stocks rebound, oil and gold retreat amid eased Middle East concerns.
• Interest rates on loans in China remained unchanged.
• “If these reports are true, then concerns about further escalation will increase, as will concerns about the possibility that we are getting closer to a situation where oil supply risks are leading to actual supply disruptions,” said Warren Patterson, Head of Commodity Strategy at ING, in a note.
• Patterson said the reports raised concerns that Israel was responding to a missile and drone attack by Iran late last week.
• Bitcoin price recovered and rose above the $64,000 resistance zone. BTC now faces hurdles near $65,500 and $66,000 levels.

• Bitcoin price shows bearish signals below the $63,000 resistance zone. BTC should remain above the $60,000 support zone to avoid a major drop.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2366.33

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2371.44, with a target price of 2377.87 and 2384.77. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2360.06, with a price target of 2353.61 and then 2346.45.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $81.20 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $81.71, targeting a price of $82.17, then 82.74. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $81.03, targeting a price of $80.50, then 79.92.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.06643

The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.06527, targeting a price of 1.06367, then 1.06154. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.06755, targeting a price of 1.06939, then 1.07164.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.23824

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.23661, targeting a price of 1.23463 then 1.23239. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a break and holding steady by closing above 1.23997, targeting a price of 1.24283 then 1.24504.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 17269

The first scenario: sell the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close below 17184, targeting the price of 17122 then 17052. Alternative scenario: buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close above 17308, targeting the price of 17377 then 17474

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

No Economic Events Scheduled for Today

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said on Friday that the Federal Reserve should hold off on cutting interest rates as progress on reducing inflation has stalled this year.

Markets are now expecting the central bank to keep rates on hold until September and see no more than one rate cut this year.

Investors are now looking to US GDP data on Thursday and the Fed’s preferred personal consumption expenditures price index report on Friday for further guidance.

The dollar steadied near multi-month highs against most major currencies but remained hovered around its 34-year high against the Japanese yen.

Gold prices fell on Monday as easing concerns about a wider conflict in the Middle East reduced the metal’s appeal as a safe haven, while market participants await a key US inflation reading due later this week for clues on interest rates.

Oil prices fell on Monday, hit by renewed focus on market fundamentals as Israel and Iran eased risks of escalation in Middle East hostilities after a seemingly small Israeli strike on Iran.