Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index fell below 103.2 on Monday, struggling to hold on to last week’s gains as investors turned cautious ahead of key monetary policy decisions in Japan and Europe this week.

• Gold remains steady as traders await US economic data.

• The spot price of gold fell 1% last week, the largest weekly decline in six weeks.
• Markets see a 49% chance of a rate cut in March versus a 71% chance two weeks ago.

• The US PMI is due on Wednesday, the advance estimate for GDP is due on Thursday, and personal consumption expenditures are due on Friday.

• Oil is struggling to stabilize as the adverse economic movement affects demand expectations, with Brent crude trading at $78.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude trading at $73.00.

• Russia will surpass Saudi Arabia by a large margin to become the largest exporter of oil to China in 2023

• Despite positive developments such as the approval of Bitcoin ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the price of Bitcoin faced significant pushback, resulting in a notable decline of 17.%.

 

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved becomes between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20220.99

The first scenario: Selling gold at a fraction and remaining stable below 2017.33, with a target price of 2010.87 and 2003.53. Alternative scenario: Buying gold at a fraction and remaining stable above 2025.56, targeting a price of 2030.62 and then 2037.56.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages is likely bearish

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $72.95 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest levels of $73.28, with a price target of $73.75, then 74.32.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking the $72.61 level, targeting $72.08, then 71.50.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages is likely to rise

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.09017
The first scenario: selling the euro/dollar at a break of 1.08930, targeting a price of 1.08770, then 1.08557.
Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro Dollar at a break and hold by closing the candle above 1.09157, targeting a price of 1.09342 then 1.09566.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages is likely to fall

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.27097
The first scenario: selling the pound for dollars at a break and holding below the level of 1.26970 with targeting the price of 1.26773, then 1.26549. Alternative scenario: Buying the pound with a dollar at a break and holding steady by closing above 1.27306, while targeting the price of 1.27592, then 1.27814.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages is likely to fall

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 17540
The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close above 17574, targeting the price of 17613 then 17659. The alternative scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close below 17515, targeting the price of 17473 then 17429.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages is likely to rise

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index fell below 103.2 on Monday, struggling to hold on to last week’s gains as investors turned cautious ahead of key monetary policy decisions in Japan and Europe this week.

• Markets are particularly concerned about possible hints of an end to negative interest rates in Japan, while policymakers in Europe are expected to strongly resist bets on interest rate cuts this year.

• However, stronger-than-expected US economic data and hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which reduced expectations for a rate cut in March, kept the dollar supportive.

• In the Fed’s latest comment, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Friday that she believes the US economy and monetary policy are in a “good place” and that it is too early to believe that interest rate cuts are imminent.

• Markets now see a 47% chance of a Fed rate cut in March, down significantly from 81% a week ago, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

• Gold prices were little changed on Monday, as traders cautiously awaited new data on the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge due later this week, leading up to the central bank’s interest rate decision next week.

• Last week, Fed officials said it needed more inflation data before making any judgment to cut interest rates, and that the baseline to start cuts was in the third quarter.

• Investors will await the flash US PMI report on Wednesday, and fourth-quarter GDP estimates due on Wednesday Thursday and Friday’s PCE data.

• Oil prices struggled to move forward on Monday, as economic headwinds pressured global oil demand expectations and offset concerns.

• Geopolitics in the Middle East and an attack on a Russian fuel export terminal over the weekend.