Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index reaches its highest level in 27 weeks.
• Gold declines due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.
• Stocks in China hit their lowest point in 42 weeks.
• Oil retreats as it compensates for expectations of interest rate hikes amid U.S. stock withdrawals, with Brent crude trading at $92.83 and West Texas Intermediate at $88.73.
• Bitcoin reserves on exchanges approach their lowest level in six years.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

 

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GOLD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,928.04
First scenario: Buy gold on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1,929.36, targeting a price of $1,933.75 and then $1,938.25.

Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,923.50, targeting a price of $1,918.23 and then $1,913.22.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $88.76 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $89.01, targeting a price of $89.46 and then $90.00.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $88.39, targeting a price of $87.95 and then $87.52.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.06361
First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.06200, targeting a price of $1.06040 and then $1.05867.

Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1.06430, targeting a price of $1.06617 and then $1.06826.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.23217
First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break when staying below $1.22961, targeting a price of $1.22635 and then $1.22341.

Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $1.23378, targeting a price of $1.23722 and then $1.24050.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

 

 

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $15,088
First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break when staying below $15,054, targeting a price of $15,000 and then $14,928.

Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $15,135, targeting a price of $15,196 and then $15,259.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• UK: Yield Price Index at 14:00
• United States: Initial Jobless Claims Index at 15:30
• United States: Philadelphia Manufacturing Index at 15:30
• United States: Existing Home Sales Index at 17:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The Dollar Index, measuring the currency against a basket of competing currencies, reached its highest level at 105.68, the strongest since early March, before settling at a slight drop to 105.55.
• The Federal Reserve met market expectations at its policy meeting on Wednesday, keeping interest rates steady at the range of 5.25% – 5.50%.
• However, the U.S. central bank reinforced its hawkish monetary policy stance, increasingly believing that it can successfully reduce inflation without harming the economy or causing significant job losses.
• Moh Seong Sim, a foreign exchange market strategist at a Singaporean bank, said, “A lot of people went into the Federal Reserve meeting expecting a hawkish hold but it was a more hawkish hold than widely expected.”
• In addition to the potential interest rate hike later this year, the updated expectations from the Federal Reserve show significantly higher interest rates through 2024 than previously forecast.
• Gold dropped below $1,930 per ounce on Thursday, retreating further from its multi-week highs amid the overall strength of the U.S. dollar as the U.S. Federal Reserve temporarily on hold.
• The U.S. central bank kept interest rates unchanged as widely expected but indicated a rate hike again by the end of the year.
• The Bank of England is also set to make a policy decision later today, and investors remain divided on whether or not the central bank will raise interest rates again or halt its tightening campaign amid falling inflation in the UK.
• The Bank of Japan will also provide a policy update on Friday, with traders focusing on signs of an end to Japan’s negative interest rate policy.
• Oil prices declined in early Asian trading on Thursday, after recording the largest drop in a month in the previous session, as expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes offset by expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes.