enDaily Analysis 21/06/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held above 105.5 on Friday after jumping 0.4% in the previous session, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will lag other major central banks in easing policy.
-Gold is heading for weekly gains due to optimism regarding interest rate cuts in the United States and geopolitical problems
-The metal has gained more than 1% since the beginning of the week and the labor market in the United States, housing data indicate a slowdown in the economy, and silver, platinum and palladium are heading for weekly gains.
“In the short term, the current impetus for gold’s upward movement is primarily driven by rising geopolitical tensions, especially following news regarding the attack on Gaza,” said Kelvin Wong, chief market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA.
On Thursday, several Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip killed at least 14 people and injured dozens of others.
“The market is now looking at the possibility of another (in the United States) interest rate cut after September, which could support gold and keep it above the $2,300 level,” Wong said.
Data on Thursday showed that first-time claims for US unemployment benefits fell moderately last week, while new housing construction fell. This, coupled with tepid retail sales last month, keeps the chance of a rate cut in September on the table. (Fedwatch)
-Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
-Next market focus is on US PMIs due at 0145 GMT.
ACY Securities analyst Luca Santos said: “Although corrections are possible, the support level around $2,300 remains crucial for gold, with any significant decline likely to be affected by shifts in economic indicators or sudden market movements.”
-Asian stocks ended the week on a weak note after a recent rally to 26-month highs prompted profit-taking, while continued strength in the US dollar pushed the Japanese yen towards intervention territory.
Oil prices are heading for a second week of gains amid signs of improving demand, with Brent crude trading at $85.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $81.00.
Citi analysts said in a note: “Increasing seasonal demand, as shown by the latest environmental impact assessment data, the renewed confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah, and the hurricane season, could support price strength in the summer.”
US government data released Thursday showed that total product supplies, an indicator of the country’s demand, rose by 1.9 million barrels per day over the week to 21.1 million barrels per day.
-Bitcoin price failed to rise above the $66,500 resistance level. BTC is once again moving lower and may drop below the $64,600 support area.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2358.09
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2367.02, with a target price of 2373.45 and 2380.58.
Alternative scenario: sell gold at a break and hold below 2355.64, with a target price of 2349.19 and then 2342.96.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $81.02 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $81.38, targeting a price of $81.85, then 82.42. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $80.70, targeting a price of $80.18, then 79.60.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.07138
The first scenario: selling the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07032, targeting a price of 1.06872, then 1.06659.
Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break and hold steady by closing the candle above 1.07260, targeting the price of 1.07444 then 1.07669.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
GBPUSD
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.26601
The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.26479, targeting the price of 1.26281 then 1.26057.
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold firm by closing above 1.26815, targeting the price of 1.27101 then 1.27322.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
NAS100
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20080
The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold steady with a close above 20117, targeting the price of 20187 and then 20267.
Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold firm by closing below 20015, price of 19958, then 19907.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
From the United States of America Manufacturing PMI (June) 16:45
From the United States of America Services PMI (June) 16:45
From the United States of America Existing Home Sales (May) 17:00
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Committee Report 18:00
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held above 105.5 on Friday after jumping 0.4% in the previous session, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will lag other major central banks in easing policy.
The US central bank has consistently called for caution before cutting interest rates, while the European Central Bank, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of Canada have already begun cutting interest rates.
The Bank of England also signaled its willingness to lower borrowing costs soon, while the Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates again.
Meanwhile, data released on Thursday showed that initial jobless claims came in slightly above expectations, remaining near 10-month highs last week.
Furthermore, housing construction and building permits both fell to four-year lows, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index suddenly fell.
Markets are betting that the Fed will deliver two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year.
Gold prices are poised for a second consecutive weekly gain on Friday, driven by safe-haven demand amid tensions in the Middle East and growing bets that the US Federal Reserve may cut interest rates later this year.
Crude oil futures were little changed on Friday, but are expected to rise for a second week amid signs of improving demand and lower oil and fuel inventories in the United States, the world’s largest oil consumer.
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