enDaily Analysis 20/11/2023
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
- The dollar is under pressure from cautious bets on the Federal Reserve and is hovering near its lowest levels in 11 weeks.
- Gold is rising as the dollar declines due to temporary bets on the Federal Reserve.
- Investors’ focus is shifting to the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week.
- Oil prices continue to rise as OPEC+ considers deeper cuts, trading at $81.74 for Brent crude and $76.43 for West Texas Intermediate crude.
- Bitcoin is recovering its strength as bulls target $40,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $1,982.14
First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1,986.39, targeting a price of $1,991.45 and then $1,998.39.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,978.16, targeting a price of $1,971.71 and then $1,964.36.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.
CRUDE OIL
General trend: bearish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $76.72 per barrel
First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $76.88, targeting a price of $77.32 and then $77.98.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $76.45, targeting a price of $76.04 and then $75.56.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.
EURUSD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $1.09272
First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.09141, targeting a price of $1.08981 and then $1.08768.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.09368, targeting a price of $1.09553 and then $1.09777.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.
GBPUSD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $1.24881
First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.24681, targeting a price of $1.24484 and then $1.24260.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.25018, targeting a price of $1.25303 and then $1.25524.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.
NAS100
General trend: bullish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $15,849
First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $15,823, targeting a price of $15,769 and then $15,697.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $15,902, targeting a price of $15,965 and then $16,028.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- No economic events released today.
Fundamental Analysis
- The dollar index fell to around 103.6 on Monday, hovering near its lowest levels in 11 weeks. The slowing inflation in the United States boosted bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may have reached the end of its tightening monetary policy cycle, while traders shift their focus to potential interest rate cuts next year.
- The Central Bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged again in December, while markets see a 30% chance that the Fed could start cutting rates as early as March 2024.
- Investors are now awaiting the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and a slew of economic data in the United States for further guidance.
- Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China kept its one-year and five-year benchmark loan rates unchanged at 3.45% and 4.2%, respectively, in line with expectations.
- The dollar fell across the board, with the most noticeable selling activity against the euro and the yuan.
- Gold prices rose on Monday, as the dollar continued to decline after recent US economic data boosted bets that the Fed may have ended its rate-hike cycle.
- Oil futures rose on Monday, extending their gains on expectations that OPEC+ will deepen supply cuts to support prices, which have fallen for four weeks due to easing concerns about Middle East supply disruptions amid the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
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