Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

-The dollar index stabilized around 105.3 on Thursday as US investors returned from a one-day holiday, while markets looked to more economic data to better guide expectations.

-Gold hits its highest level in two weeks amid bets on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve

The metal recorded its highest levels since June 7, and ANZ holds a positive view of gold and the weekly unemployment claims data scheduled to be released at 15:30 Mecca time.

Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said: “I still prefer bullish moves for the gold market in light of the situation in which we currently stand on the interest rate curve, which is peaking.”

“The gold market seems content to consolidate recent gains rather than rally at this point, at least until we see some additional evidence of weak US macro data, which could change interest rate expectations.”

Data last week showed moderation in labor market and price pressures, followed by weak retail sales data on Tuesday, indicating that economic activity remained lackluster in the second quarter.

-The Fed is looking for further confirmation that inflation is cooling as it cautiously heads toward what most expect to be one or two rate cuts by the end of this year.

Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of owning non-yielding bullion.

“Mixed comments from Fed officials could inject short-term volatility,” ANZ analysts said in a note. We have a positive view on gold with a price target of $2,500 per ounce by the end of 2024.”

-The market’s immediate focus is on the US weekly unemployment claims data scheduled for release at 15:30 Mecca time as well as purchasing managers’ indexes on Friday.

Asian stocks caught their breath on Thursday, hovering near two-year highs as traders waited for more clues on US policy, while the pound steadied ahead of a Bank of England meeting where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged.

-Brent crude oil is stable as the market looks forward to war tensions in the Middle East and US inventory data.
Brent crude oil is trading at $85.00 levels, as well as West Texas Intermediate crude oil at $80.00 levels.

Israeli tanks penetrate deep into Rafah, and thus: US government data on oil reserves

-There was no settlement for WTI on Wednesday due to the US holiday, which kept trading largely subdued. The most active August contract (CLc2) fell 17 cents to $80.54 a barrel.

Brent crude futures rose in early trading on Thursday as the market absorbed news of the advance of Israeli tanks into Gaza.

-Bitcoin price consolidates above $64,000. BTC could try to follow Ethereum and recover if it can clear the $65,650 resistance area.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2342.07

The first scenario: selling gold at a fraction and holding below 2336.22, with a price target of 2329.77 and 2323.54.

Alternative scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2347.60, with a target price of 2354.03 and then 2361.16.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $80.38 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $80.75, targeting a price of $81.22, then 81.78. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $80.07, targeting a price of $79.55, then 78.96.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07335

The first scenario: selling the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07265, targeting a price of 1.07105, then 1.06892.

Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break and hold steady by closing the candle above 1.07492, targeting the price of 1.07677 then 1.07901.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.27083

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.26946, targeting the price of 1.26748 then 1.26524.

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold firm by closing above 1.27282, targeting the price of 1.27568 then 1.27789.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20318

The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold steady with a close above 20347, targeting a price of 20416 then 20497.

Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold firm by closing below 20245, price of 20188, then 20137.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

From Switzerland: Interest decision issued by the Central Bank of Switzerland (Q2) 10:30
– From Britain: Interest decision issued by the Bank of England (June) 14:00
– From Britain Inflation rate from the Bank of England 15:00

From the United States of America, unemployment claims rates are 15:30

From the United States of America: Philadelphia Manufacturing Index (June) 15:30
– US crude oil inventory 18:00

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index settled around 105.3 on Thursday as US investors returned from a one-day holiday, while markets looked to more economic data to better guide expectations.

New US housing projects, building permits and initial unemployment claims are scheduled to be announced on Thursday, while S&P’s global manufacturing and services PMI reports are due on Friday.

Earlier this week, the dollar came under pressure as weaker-than-expected US retail sales data reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates soon.

Markets now see there is about a two-thirds chance that the Fed will start easing policy in September, with interest rates expected to be cut roughly twice this year.

Investors are also looking ahead to the Bank of England’s policy decision later today, as it is expected to keep interest rates steady before delivering its first rate cut in August.
Gold prices rose to their highest level in two weeks on Thursday, as weak US economic data raised the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year.

Brent crude futures were little changed in Asia on Thursday, hovering just below seven-week highs, as the market weighs geopolitical developments in the Middle East while awaiting upcoming US inventory data.