enDaily Analysis 20/05/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
-The dollar index stabilized around 104.5 on Monday as investors continued to evaluate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, while awaiting further US economic data this week for further signals.
Gold prices rose to a record high amid optimism about lowering US interest rates
-Last week’s data provided good news for the US Federal Reserve on two fronts, but policymakers have not yet publicly changed their views on the timing of the interest rate cuts that investors believe will begin this year.
However, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated her view that inflation will decline further with interest rates held steady, but said she has not seen any improvement in inflation this year and remains willing to raise interest rates if progress is halted or reversed.
Gold is known as an inflation hedge, but rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Last week’s rise in gold prices inhibited physical purchases by major consumers, prompting traders to offer smaller bonuses in China and deeper discounts after a major gold buying festival in India.
Yesterday, the plane of the Iranian President, along with the Iranian Foreign Minister and their entourage, crashed near the Azerbaijani border.
Iranian rescue teams and drones are rushing to the place to conduct search operations, and the matter is very difficult due to the presence of dense fog and heavy rain, in addition to the large number of mountains, valleys and forests in this area.
-The Turkish march found the site of the Iranian president’s helicopter crash
The Iranian News Agency announces the death of the Iranian President, his Foreign Minister, and their accompanying delegation
Oil prices rise amid uncertainty over the fate of the Iranian president, with Brent crude trading at $84.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude trading at $79.00.
Brent ended the previous week up by about 1%, its first weekly gain in three weeks, while West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2% thanks to improved economic indicators from the United States and China, the world’s largest oil consumers.
-Despite the fluctuations witnessed in the region, oil prices moved only slightly.
-Bitcoin price rose above the $67,000 area. BTC is now consolidating gains and may attempt another surge towards $69,500.
-Inflation data released on Wednesday, May 15 showed that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in April – below expectations of 0.4%. This revelation suggests that inflation may be on a downward slope in the US, making risky assets like Bitcoin more attractive.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2448.34
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2452.29, with a target price of 2458.72 and 2465.85.
Alternative scenario: sell gold at a fraction and hold below 2440.91, with a target price of 2434.47 and then 2428.24
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $79.83 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest levels of $80.01, targeting a price of $80.48, then 81.04. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $79.33, targeting a price of $78.81, then 78.22.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08839
The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.08925, targeting a price of 1.09109, then 1.09334.
Alternative scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break and hold firm by closing the candle below 1.08697, targeting the price of 1.08537 then 1.08324.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
GBPUSD
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.27075
The first scenario: Buying the pound dollar at a break and stability above the level of 1.27185, targeting the price of 1.27471 then 1.27692.
Alternative scenario: sell the pound dollar at a break and hold firm by closing below 1.26849, targeting the price of 1.26651 then 1.26427.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
NAS100
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18677
The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold steady with a close above 18709, targeting the price of 18779 then 18859.
Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold steady by closing below 18607, price 18550, then 18499.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
There are no economic events released today
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 104.5 on Monday as investors continued to weigh the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, while awaiting further US economic data this week for further signals.
Last week, the index lost nearly 1% as signs of slowing inflation in the United States reinforced bets that the central bank will begin a policy easing cycle this year.
Data released on Wednesday showed that US consumer inflation data came in line with expectations in April, but was lower than the previous month.
Meanwhile, a group of Federal Reserve officials called for caution before moving to lower interest rates.
Investors are now looking to the minutes of the Fed’s May 1 decision on Wednesday for further guidance.
The dollar remained stable across the board, but continued to rise against the yuan, as the People’s Bank of China kept key lending rates unchanged.
Gold prices rose to a record high on Monday after US economic data last week raised bets that the Federal Reserve (US central bank) may cut interest rates twice this year.
Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Monday, adding to last week’s gains as rescuers searched for Iran’s president after a helicopter crash in the oil-producing country and after the United States bought crude to help refill national stockpiles.
Oil prices rose today, Friday, with Brent crude, the global benchmark, heading for its first weekly increase in three weeks thanks to signs of improving global demand amid stronger economic indicators from major consumers China and the United States.
Risk Disclaimer
Any information/articles/materials/content provided by WRC1 or displayed on its website is intended to be used solely for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a consultation on how the client should trade.
Although WRC1 has taken care to ensure that the content of such information is accurate, - it cannot be held responsible for any omission/error/miscalculation and cannot guarantee the accuracy of any material or any information contained herein.
Therefore, any reliance you place on such material is strictly at your own risk. Please note that the responsibility for using or relying on such material rests with the client and WRC1 accepts no liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation, any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
Risk Warning: FX/CFDs are complex instruments and carry a high risk of losing money quickly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how FX/CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
You should make sure that, depending on your country of residence, you are allowed to trade with WRC1 products. Please ensure that you are familiar with the company’s risk disclosure.
