enDaily Analysis 20/02/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
• The dollar index rose to around 104.4 on Tuesday, recouping some of its losses in recent sessions as investors continued to assess Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations.
• Gold holds firm as focus turns to Fed minutes
• The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting are due to be released on Wednesday.
• Oil prices hover near 3-week highs on Middle East tensions, Chinese demand
• Brent crude is trading at $83.00 and WTI crude is trading at $78.00.
• Bitcoin is correcting its gains from the $52,500 resistance level. BTC needs to stay above the $50,500 support level to stay in the bullish zone this month.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2019.57
The first scenario: Buying gold at a fraction and remaining stable above 2022.26, with a target price of 2027.31 and 2034.26. Alternative scenario: Selling gold at a fraction and remaining stable below 2014.02, with a price targeting of 2007.58 and then 2000.22.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $78.24 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $78.60, targeting a price of $79.07, then 79.63. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $77.92, targeting a price of $77.40, then 76.82.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: – Bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.07711
The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07571, targeting a price of 1.07411, then 1.07198. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07798, targeting a price of 1.07983, then 1.08207.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
GBPUSD
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.25855
The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.25653, targeting the price of 1.25426 then 1.25202. The alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a break and holding steady by closing above 1.25959, targeting the price of 1.26245 then 1.26466.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline
NAS100
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 17702
The first scenario: sell the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close below 17660, targeting the price of 17618 then 17574. Alternative scenario: buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close above 17719, targeting the price of 17758 then 17804.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- No significant data today
Fundamental Analysis
•
• The dollar index rose to around 104.4 on Tuesday, recouping some of its losses in recent sessions as investors continued to assess Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations.
• The dollar had jumped about 1% last week to reach a three-month high before giving up most of those gains as investors digested mixed U.S. economic data.
• Latest data showed that U.S. consumer and producer prices rose more than expected in January, while retail sales fell more than expected last month.
• Traders have now pushed back their bets on the first Federal Reserve rate cut to June from March.
• Markets are also pricing in less than 100 basis points of total easing this year, down sharply from around 150 basis points priced in at the start of the year.
• The dollar strengthened across the board, with buying interest most evident against the yen and Japanese currencies.
• Gold prices steadied on Tuesday despite a firmer dollar and rising Treasury yields, as investors awaited the minutes of the last Federal Reserve policy meeting for clues on the timing of interest rate cuts.
• Oil prices were largely steady on Tuesday, hovering near their highest in three weeks on rising Middle East tensions and a recovery in Chinese demand.
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