enDaily Analysis 19/11/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
-Dollar holds losses on profit-taking
The dollar index held steady around 106.2 on Tuesday after falling for two straight sessions as the currency took profit after a strong rally.
Gold rises as US dollar declines
Market attention turned to comments from Federal Reserve officials, as investors sought more clarity on the U.S. central bank’s path to monetary easing.
Expectations for a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting have fallen to less than 59%, down from 62% a day earlier and more than 65% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch.
Investors are also closely watching President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet appointments.
Moreover, rising geopolitical risks are boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals such as gold, amid ongoing hostilities in the Middle East and escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
Gold steady, Fed rate cut expectations in spotlight
-Gold trades steady in early Asian trade amid prospects of Fed rate cut. Central bank spokesmen have eased concerns about a halt to monetary easing.
They point to comments by Chicago Federal Reserve President Austin Goolsbee that interest rates will be much lower over the next 12 to 18 months.
Goolsbee said this will continue as long as inflation continues to fall toward the central bank’s 2% target. Low interest rates typically boost the appeal of the non-interest-bearing precious metal.
Asian stocks rise, dollar weak as US yields fall
Asian stocks rose on Tuesday while U.S. bond yields and the dollar retreated from multi-month highs as traders awaited President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet picks and sought to gauge the prospects for monetary policy easing at the Federal Reserve.
Oil holds gains amid supply concerns, geopolitical tensions, with Brent trading at $73.00 and WTI at $69.00
Production at Norway’s 755,000 barrels of oil per day Johan Sverdrup field has been halted due to an onshore power outage.
-In addition, the Chevron-led Tengiz project in Kazakhstan has cut daily oil production by about 30% this month due to ongoing maintenance, further tightening global supplies.
Geopolitical risks also pushed prices higher as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated after the United States approved Ukraine’s use of long-range American-made missiles inside Russia, which could draw the United States more directly into the conflict.
The weakness of the US dollar has added further support to oil prices, making crude more attractive to foreign buyers.
Bitcoin price continues to consolidate its gains near the $90,000 area. Bitcoin is showing positive signs and may soon target a fresh increase above $92,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2623.27
Scenario 1: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2616.74, targeting 2610.29 and 2602.45
Alternative scenario: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2628.51, targeting 2634.55 and then 2641.68
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $69.27 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below $68.82 levels, targeting $68.30 and then $67.72
Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $69.50 level, targeting $69.97 and then $70.53
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.05873
Scenario 1: Sell the EUR/USD by breaking 1.05815, targeting 1.05655 and then 1.05442.
Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.06042, targeting 1.06227 and then 1.06451.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
GBPUSD
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.26735
Scenario 1: Selling the pound/dollar with a break and stability below the 1.26651 level, targeting the price of 1.26410 and then 1.26188
Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar with a break and hold with a close above 1.26951, targeting 1.27191 and then 1.27478
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 20683
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20749, targeting 20853 then 20971
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close below 20592 with a target price of 20468 then 20361
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
-From Europe CPI (YoY) (Oct) 13:00
-From Canada CPI (YoY) (Oct) 16:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 106.2 on Tuesday after falling for two straight sessions as the currency took profit after a strong rally.
However, the index has risen about 6% from its September low, amid expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and bets on the US economy outperforming under the upcoming Trump presidency.
While markets continue to price in a quarter-point rate cut in December, expectations for further rate cuts through late 2025 have been trimmed to less than 80 basis points, down from more than 100 basis points just a few weeks ago.
Meanwhile, the dollar fell against the yen after Japan’s finance minister indicated that the government may intervene if the yen continues to fall too quickly.
The US dollar also fell against the euro, as comments from senior European Central Bank officials indicated greater concern about the potential impact of new US trade tariffs on eurozone growth than on inflation.
Gold rose above $2,620 an ounce on Tuesday, hitting a one-week high, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures rose above $69 a barrel on Tuesday, after rising 3.2% in the previous session, amid concerns over supply disruptions and rising geopolitical tensions.
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