enDaily Analysis 19/09/2023
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
- The US dollar remains in a sideways pattern, with investors eagerly awaiting interest rate decisions to determine the next course of action.
- Gold has reached its highest point in two weeks, with the Federal Reserve meeting capturing attention.
- Adobe stocks dropped by 4.2% on Friday after the company reported adjusted earnings for the third quarter of the fiscal year.
- The real estate recovery in China may be slower and smaller compared to previous cycles.
- Oil prices are on the rise due to concerns about supply shortages, with Brent crude trading at $94.93 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude at $91.07 per barrel.
- Bitcoin’s price is undergoing a technical correction, with the possibility of continuing the upward trend targeting $28,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bearish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $1.06705
First scenario: Buy gold on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1,935.85, targeting a price of $1,940.24 and then $1,944.74.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,929.99, targeting a price of $1,924.72 and then $1,919.71.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.
CRUDE OIL
General trend: bullish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $91.06 per barrel
First scenario: Buy oil on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $91.33, targeting a price of $91.79 and then $92.32.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $90.71, targeting a price of $90.71 and then $89.84.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.
EURUSD
General trend: bearish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $1.06790
First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.06765, targeting a price of $1.06605 and then $1.06432.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above $1.06995, targeting a price of $1.07182 and then $1.07391.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.
GBPUSD
General trend: bearish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $1.23758
First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break when staying below $1.23707, targeting a price of $1.23381 and then $1.23087.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $1.24124, targeting a price of $1.24468 and then $1.24796.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.
NAS100
General trend: bearish
Time interval: 30 minutes
Current price: $15,398
First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break when staying below $15,374, targeting a price of $15,320 and then $15,248.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when stable by closing the candle above the levels of $15,455, targeting a price of $15,516 and then $15,579.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- Europe: Annual Inflation Rate Index at 12:00
- Canada: Annual Inflation Rate Index at 15:30
- United States: Building Permits Index at 15:30
- United States: US Crude Oil Inventories Index at 23:30
Fundamental Analysis
- The US dollar is poised for volatility during the Federal Reserve announcement on Wednesday, especially if economic expectations or forecasts for future interest rate movements undergo significant revisions, as stated by Jamie Dutta, market analyst at Vantage. The dollar has enjoyed nine consecutive weeks of gains, and Dutta suggests, “streaks of this type, stretching into double figures, are very rare in major currencies so the broader uptrend could be ready for some consolidation”
- Gold prices reached their highest point in two weeks on Tuesday, with the dollar losing its grip on six-month highs ahead of central bank meetings beginning with the US Federal Reserve later today.
- Oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive session on Tuesday as reduced shale oil production in the United States fueled concerns about supply shortages, extending cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia.
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