enDaily Analysis 19/08/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held steady around 102.4 on Monday after losing about 0.6 percent in the previous session, weighed down by expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to cut borrowing costs soon to avoid an economic slowdown.
-Gold hovers at all-time highs
-US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is reportedly in the Middle East to mediate ceasefire negotiations with Gaza.
But the continued Israeli strikes and conflicting statements from Hamas and Israel have weakened the chances of a breakthrough.
Furthermore, concerns have been raised about escalation between Ukraine and Russia as Ukrainian forces advance into Russian territory.
Meanwhile, positive US economic data last week has led markets to favor a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, rather than a 50 basis point cut.
However, with inflation nearing the Fed’s target, markets continued to expect a total of 100 basis points of cuts over the remaining three meetings this year.
Investors are now awaiting a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes later this week for further insights on monetary policy.
-Gold is steady at the start of the Asian session, but could be affected by a possible technical correction after the most active gold futures contract touched a new intraday record high and an all-time settlement high on Friday.
The latest surge in gold prices came on the heels of disappointing US housing data that boosted bets on faster and deeper cuts by the Federal Reserve, one analyst said.
The focus of the precious metal will remain on the scope and timing of the Fed’s potential move to cut interest rates.
Asian stocks rose and the dollar fell on Monday after global shares posted their best week in nine months on expectations that the U.S. economy will avoid recession and that slowing inflation will trigger a cycle of interest rate cuts.
-Brent continues its losses due to demand concerns, with Brent crude trading at $79.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $74.00.
Recent Chinese economic data revealed slowing growth, falling housing prices and rising unemployment rates, prompting Chinese refineries to cut crude oil processing rates.
This comes after OPEC and the International Energy Agency last week revised down their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024, citing weaker data and lower Chinese demand.
Meanwhile, markets continued to monitor potential risks to oil supplies as a result of rising geopolitical tensions.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is reportedly in the Middle East, seeking to secure a ceasefire in Gaza amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes, while Russia has responded to the unexpected Ukrainian incursion.
-Bitcoin is trading at $58,550, down 3.44% in the past 24 hours. Although it is fluctuating between a wide range of $60,000 and $56,000,
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2505.26
Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2507.56, targeting 2513.99 and 2521.12
Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2496.18, targeting 2489.73 and then 2483.50
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Down
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $74.95 per barrel
Scenario 1: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below the $74.79 levels, targeting $74.26 and then $73.68.
Alternative scenario: Buy oil by breaking the $75.47 level, targeting $75.93 and then $75.50.
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.10449
Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.10551, targeting 1.10736 and then 1.10960.
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.10324, targeting 1.10164 and then 1.09951.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.29621
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.29713, targeting the price of 1.29854 and then 1.30054
Alternative scenario: Selling the pound dollar with a break and stability with a close below 1.29496, targeting 1.29355 and then 1.29177
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19572
Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold to close above 19691 with a target price of 19794 then 19912
Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 19534 with target price 19409 then 19302
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
There is no important economic data for today.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held steady around 102.4 on Monday after losing about 0.6 percent in the previous session, weighed down by expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to cut borrowing costs soon to avoid an economic slowdown.
The U.S. labor market and some leading economic indicators are sending warning signals, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austin Goolsbee said Friday, pointing to rising levels of credit card delinquency.
Weaker-than-expected U.S. housing starts for July also added to bearish sentiment.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, with a larger 50 basis point cut still on the table.
Investors now look to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes later this week for further guidance on the path of monetary policy.
The dollar suffered losses against most major currencies, but made some gains against the yen.
Gold prices held steady around $2,500 an ounce on Monday, hovering near an all-time high, driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets as markets assess the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
Brent crude futures fell to around $79.6 a barrel on Monday, extending losses from a nearly 2% drop in the previous session, driven by persistent demand concerns from China, the world’s biggest oil consumer.
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