enDaily Analysis 19/07/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held above 104.2 on Friday after rising 0.4% in the previous session, recovering sharply from a four-month low as strong U.S. economic data provided support.
Gold heads for fourth straight weekly gain on US rate cut expectations
-The US dollar index rose by 0.1%, and silver, platinum, palladium headed for a weekly decline.
The US dollar rose by 0.1%, and the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields rose, putting pressure on gold.
Gold is currently seeing some profit-taking, but things look positive in the medium term amid political uncertainty and the looming interest rate cut, said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst for Asia-Pacific at OANDA.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are 98% likely to see the Fed cut rates in September. The appeal of non-yielding gold tends to shine in a low interest rate environment.
“The official announcement of monetary policy easing by the Fed is expected to further boost gold prices. As a result, prices could reach a record high of $3,000 by the fall of 2024,” said Julia Khandushko, CEO of European brokerage Mind Money.
Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said recent inflation readings “add some confidence” that the pace of price increases is returning to the central bank’s target in a sustainable way, suggesting that a shift to lower interest rates may not be far off.
However, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said on Thursday: “We don’t have price stability right now.”
“As physical markets gradually get used to higher prices and thus convinced that the uptrend is here to stay, gold fundamentals are expected to improve,” Metals Focus said in a weekly note.
Asian stocks are expected to end the week lower, as uncertainty across major economies adds to headwinds for investors even as the global interest rate easing cycle gets underway.
Oil prices are heading for a second consecutive weekly decline, with Brent crude trading at $84.00 and West Texas Intermediate at $80.00.
The US dollar index rose for a second straight session after stronger-than-expected US labor market and manufacturing data earlier in the week. A stronger US dollar reduces demand for dollar-denominated oil from investors holding other currencies.
Meanwhile, analysts at ANZ Bank said in a note that the lack of concrete stimulus measures from China, the largest oil importer, weighed on commodities.
China’s economy grew at a slower-than-expected 4.7 percent in the second quarter, official data showed, raising concerns about the country’s oil demand.
“Near-term supply concerns kept losses to a minimum,” ANZ said, referring to worsening wildfires threatening production in Canada’s oil sands.
-Bitcoin price rose after rising from the resistance level of $66,000. Bitcoin price fell below $64,000 and may continue to lose ground in the short term.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2417.54 Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2424.96 with a target price of 2431.39 and 2438.57 Scenario
Alternative: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2413.58, targeting 2407.13 and then 2400.91
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
CRUDE OIL
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $80.59 per barrel
Scenario 1: Buy oil with a break and stability by closing a candle above the $80.92 levels, targeting $81.39 and then $81.96.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil by breaking $80.24 with a target price of $79.72 then $79.14
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
EURUSD
General trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08870 Scenario 1: Buy EUR/USD by breaking 1.09008, targeting 1.09193 and then 1.09417
Alternative scenario: Sell the EUR/USD with a break and stability with a candle closing below 1.08781, targeting 1.08621 and then 1.08408.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
GBPUSD
Trend: Upward
Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.29307
Scenario 1: Buy the pound dollar with a break and stability above the level of 1.29531, targeting the price of 1.29817 and then 1.30038
Alternative scenario: Sell the GBP/USD with a break and stability with a close below 1.29195, targeting 1.28998 and then 1.28774.
Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.
NAS100
Trend: Down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 19972
Scenario 1: Selling the Nasdaq with a break and stability with a close below 19904, targeting a price of 19847 and then 19796.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq with break and hold with close above 20006 price 20075 then 20156
Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
There are no important events scheduled for today.
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held above 104.2 on Friday after rising 0.4% in the previous session, recovering sharply from a four-month low as strong U.S. economic data provided support.
Manufacturing activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region expanded more than expected in July amid a surge in new orders, data showed Thursday.
Meanwhile, the latest weekly jobless claims rose more than expected, but did not change views on the labor market due to seasonal factors.
Elsewhere, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said that despite recent improvements in inflation data, she still looked for more confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward the central bank’s 2% target.
On the external front, the European Central Bank kept interest rates steady on Thursday as widely expected, with ECB President Christine Lagarde saying the next decision in September was “wide open.” The dollar rose broadly, hitting a two-month high against the New Zealand dollar amid dovish bets in New Zealand.
Gold prices fell on Friday, but were on track for a fourth straight weekly gain as expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September boosted the metal’s appeal.
Oil prices fell on Friday, putting them on track for a second weekly decline, as a strong dollar and mixed economic signals weighed on investor sentiment.
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