enDaily Analysis 20/03/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index held onto its recent gains, trading around 103.8 on Wednesday, hovering near its highest levels since early March as investors scaled back bets on early U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts due to strong U.S. economic data.
- The Bank of Japan exited negative interest rate policy.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady.
- The Fed is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday.
- Gold is rangebound as investors await the Fed decision and Powell’s speech.
- The yen is nearing four-month lows, with the Fed in focus.
- Focus is on Powell’s speech for clues on rate cuts.
- The market also shrugged off China’s widely expected decision to keep its benchmark lending rates (LPRs) unchanged at a monthly fixing earlier in the session.
- The Bank of England meets on Thursday and is expected to hold rates. The first hike is priced for June at 50-50, with 25 basis points fully priced for August and 60 basis points for 2024 as a whole.
- Canadian inflation unexpectedly falls to 2.8% in February.
- Oil retreats from multi-month highs as dollar strength weighs on demand, with Brent crude trading at $87.00 and WTI crude trading at $82.00.
- U.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell last week – API.
- A Reuters poll showed that U.S. crude stocks are expected to have risen by 10 million barrels last week.
- Concerns over Sudanese oil exports rise after pipeline disruptions.
- Bitcoin price continued to decline, falling below the $65,000 support level. BTC is now struggling to stay above the $62,000 support zone and could test $60,000.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2157.97
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2162.33, with a target price of 2167.39 and 2174.33. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2154.09, with a price target of 2147.65 and then 2140.29. Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $82.26 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $82.68, targeting a price of $83.15, then 83.72. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $82.00, targeting a price of $81.48, then 80.90. Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: – Bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08671
The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.08560, targeting a price of 1.08400, then 1.08187. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.08787, targeting a price of 1.08972, then 1.09196.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
GBPUSD
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.27151
The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.27012, targeting the price of 1.26815 then 1.26591. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a breaking point and holding steady at a close above 1.27348, targeting the price of 1.27634 then 1.27856.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
NAS100
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18272
The first scenario: Selling the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 18228, targeting the price of 18186 then 18143. The alternative scenario: Buying the Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 18288, targeting the price of 18327 then 18373.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- U.S. Crude Oil Inventory: 17:30
- U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision: 21:00
- U.S. Federal Open Market Committee Report: 21:00
- U.S. Federal Reserve Press Conference: 21:30
Fundamental Analysis
The dollar index held onto its recent gains, trading around 103.8 on Wednesday, hovering near its highest levels since early March as investors scaled back bets on early U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts due to strong U.S. economic data.
The central bank is widely expected to keep rates at their current levels, while markets will focus on the “dot plot” for clues on the timing and size of potential rate cuts in the coming months.
Data last week showed that U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in February on both a monthly and annual basis.
That came on the heels of earlier data showing that U.S. consumer prices came in hotter than expected last month.
Elsewhere, the People’s Bank of China kept its benchmark one-year and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3.45% and 3.95%, respectively, on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan exited negative interest rate policy and abandoned yield curve control on Tuesday, while the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady.
Gold prices remained stuck in a tight range on Wednesday as investors refrained from making big bets ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later in the day.
Oil prices fell on Wednesday, as a rising dollar curbed investor appetite while traders took some money off the table after benchmark crude hit multi-month highs in the previous session.
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