enDaily Analysis 19/02/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
• The dollar index fell to around 104.2 on Monday, with trading volume expected to remain light throughout the session due to a holiday in the United States.
• Gold is at a one-week high as a weaker dollar and Middle East tensions boost demand.
• A British tanker was attacked in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait off Yemen.
• The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting are due to be released on Wednesday.
• The United States and Canada are on holiday.
• Oil falls as rising U.S. inflation raises demand concerns, with Brent crude trading at $82.00 and WTI crude at $77.00.
• Bitcoin is attempting another push above the $52,000 resistance level. BTC needs to break above $52,800 to continue its near-term rally.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2021.29
The first scenario: Buying gold at a fraction and remaining above 2024.59, with a target price of 2029.65 and 2036.59. Alternative scenario: Selling gold at a fraction and remaining stable below 2016.36, with a price targeting of 2009.91 and then 2002.56.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $77.79 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $78.01, targeting a price of $78.47, then 79.04. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $77.33, targeting a price of $76.81, then 76.22.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: – Bearish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.07820
The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07719, targeting a price of 1.07559, then 1.07346. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07946, targeting a price of 1.08131, then 1.08356.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline
GBPUSD
Trend: down
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.26164
The first scenario: Selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.26037, targeting the price of 1.25840, then 1.25616. Alternative scenario: Buying the pound dollar at a break, and holding steady at a close above 1.26373, targeting the price of 1.26659, then 1.26881.
Comment: Trading below resistances and averages leads to a decline
NAS100
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 17778
The first scenario: Buying Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close above 17807, targeting a price of 17847 then 17893. Alternative scenario: Selling Nasdaq at a break and holding steady with a close below 17748, targeting a price of 17663 then 17822.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
• United States and Canada: Chinese New Year holiday
Fundamental Analysis
• The dollar index fell to around 104.2 on Monday, with trading volume expected to remain light throughout the session due to a holiday in the United States. The dollar had jumped about 1% last week to reach a three-month high before giving up most of those gains as investors digested mixed U.S. economic data.
• Latest data showed that U.S. consumer and producer prices rose more than expected in January, while U.S. retail sales fell more than expected last month.
• Traders have now pushed back their bets on the first Federal Reserve rate cut to June from March.
• Markets are also pricing in less than 100 basis points of total easing this year, down sharply from around 150 basis points priced in at the start of the year.
• Gold prices rose to their highest in nearly a week on Monday, as a slightly weaker U.S. dollar and rising Middle East tensions boosted the appeal of the bullion as a safe haven.
• Oil prices fell as investors refocused on demand concerns after reports of higher producer prices in the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumer, raised concerns that sticky inflation and rising interest rates will crimp fuel consumption growth.
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