Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar index held steady around 102.5 on Monday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data due later this week for clues on the path of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.
• Gold gains edged higher on the back of weak yields, with the focus on the U.S. inflation report.
• Palladium fell more than 1%.
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields approached their lowest levels since July.
• Australian stocks ended a six-day winning streak as hopes for rate cuts faded.
• Oil prices rose on concerns over attacks on ships in the Red Sea, with Brent crude trading at $77.00 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $72.97 a barrel.
• Bitcoin traded near $41,000, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s rejection of a bitcoin exchange-traded fund potentially leading to one of the biggest cryptocurrency withdrawals.

 

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,973.63

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1,976.92, targeting a price of $1,981.98 and then $1,988.92.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,968.69, targeting a price of $1,962.24 and then $1,955.00.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $72.34 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of$72.60, targeting a price of $73.07 and then $73.63.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $71.92, targeting a price of $71.40 and then $70.81.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.09141

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.09030, targeting a price of $1.08870 and then $1.08657.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.09257, targeting a price of $1.09442 and then $1.09667.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.26877

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.26564, targeting a price of $1.26564 and then $1.26340.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.27098, targeting a price of $1.27384 and then $1.27605.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $16,856

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $16,822, targeting a price of $16,780 and then $16,737.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the level of $16,881, targeting a price of $16,921 and then $16,967.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• No important economic event today.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar index held steady around 102.5 on Monday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data due later this week for clues on the path of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.
• In the week ending December 9, the index fell as much as 2.1% as U.S. central banks kept interest rates unchanged and signaled three rate cuts in 2024.
• However, the dollar recouped some of its losses on Friday, when New York Fed President John Williams told CNBC that the central bank is not really talking about rate cuts at this time and it is premature to think about a rate cut in March.
• Markets now see a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in March.
• Meanwhile, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and pledged to keep them at elevated levels to address inflation.
• Investors now turn to the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on Tuesday and the People’s Bank of China’s loan prime rate on Wednesday.
• Gold rose on Monday, supported by weak bond yields as investors awaited U.S. inflation data due later this week for further clarity on the path of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy after its shift to monetary easing last week.
• Oil prices rose in early Asian trading amid concerns about recent attacks on ships traveling through the Red Sea. The attacks on ships increased the likelihood of disruptions to the transport of oil and other commodities, providing some support for prices. West Texas Intermediate crude for the nearest delivery month rose 0.8% to $72.02 a barrel, and Brent crude rose 0.9% to $77.22 a barrel.
• The cryptocurrency community is on edge as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) nears a critical decision on whether to approve a physically backed Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).