Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar steadied as investors awaited Powell’s remarks.
• Gold jumped 1% as the conflict in the Middle East escalated. Gold prices have risen more than $100 since the start of the war between Israel and Hamas.
• China’s economy grew more than expected in the third quarter.
• Oil jumped more than 2% as tensions in the Middle East escalated. Brent crude traded at $91.63 and West Texas Intermediate at $87.44.
• Bitcoin is poised for takeoff if it can maintain a critical level of $28,000.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1,937.07

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1,943.34, targeting a price of $1,948.39 and then $1,955.34.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,935.10, targeting a price of $1,928.66 and then $1,921.42.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $87.33 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $87.61, targeting a price of $88.16 and then $88.66.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $86.99, targeting a price of $86.42 and then $85.89.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.05758

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.05593, targeting a price of $1.05433 and then $1.05242.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.05823, targeting a price of $1.06010 and then $1.06220.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.21785

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.21551, targeting a price of $1.21353 and then $1.21129.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.21888, targeting a price of $1.22173 and then $1.22394.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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NAS100

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $15,215

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $15,163, targeting a price of $15,109 and then $15,038.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $15,244, targeting a price of $15,305 and then $15,368.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

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Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• UK: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Monthly and Annual) at 9:00 AM
• Europe: Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 12:00 PM
• Canada: Housing Starts Index at 3:30 PM
• United States: Building Permits – 3:30 PM
• United States: Housing Starts – 3:30 PM

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The dollar held steady above 106 on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech later in the week for guidance on monetary policy expectations.
• In the latest central bank commentary, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said rising long-term borrowing costs are putting downward pressure on demand, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said inflation remains too high.
• On Tuesday, stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales and industrial production data reinforced the longer-term view on interest rates, pushing Treasury yields to their highest levels in several years.
• At the same time, the dollar struggled to make further gains as upbeat data in other major economies weighed on the currency.
• “Safe-haven flows amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have remained the dominant driver for gold prices,” said Yeap Jun Rong, market strategist at IG.
• “The risks of further escalation in the conflict could be supportive for prices in the near term, but the $1,945 level could act as a key resistance that needs to be overcome.”
• Gold prices have risen more than $100 since the start of the conflict, despite recent strong U.S. economic data that has fueled bets on higher interest rates longer-term, which tend to lift dollar and bond yields.
• U.S. factory output and retail sales both rose more than expected in September, suggesting the economy ended the third quarter on a strong note.
• Investors are awaiting Chairman Powell’s speech on Thursday for clues on interest rates.
• OCBC Bank said in its monthly commodities outlook: “The (higher for longer) narrative that has held gold down in the past few weeks appears to be showing initial signs of fading as markets look to fresh commentary from Fed officials.”
• Gold also got a boost after data showed China’s economy, the world’s largest consumer, grew at a faster-than-expected pace in the third quarter from a year earlier.
• Oil prices rose on Wednesday as tensions in the Middle East escalated after hundreds were killed in an explosion at a hospital in Gaza, raising concerns about the potential for supply disruptions from the region.