Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

-The dollar index stabilized around 105.4 on Tuesday, remaining in a sideways trading range so far this week as investors await key US economic data this week to further guide interest rate expectations.

-Gold prices rise as US bond yields decline, and focus on Federal Reserve spokesmen

-If retail sales decline in the United States, we may see gold break the $2,350 level

-Traders expect a possible 76% cut in interest rates in November

“The fact that gold’s trend has changed over the past four days without moving anywhere of significance tells me that the market is waiting for something to wake it up from its calm,” said City Index’s chief analyst.

US retail sales data is due at 15:30 CET later in the day, followed by weekly jobless claims on Thursday and flash PMIs on Friday. Data released last week showed moderation in the labor market and price pressures.

-Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker revealed Monday that he is in the go-it-alone camp, but left the door open to change his view depending on incoming data.

-A long list of Fed officials will take the podium at various venues later in the day, including Austin Goolsby of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and Thomas Barkin of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

-Traders expect a 76% chance of a rate cut in November, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. (Fedwatch)

Asian stocks followed Wall Street higher on Tuesday ahead of a group of Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak later in the day, while the Australian dollar stabilized after its central bank delivered few surprises in its policy decision.

-: Adobe Stock Rockets up 15% on AI-powered sales, increased guidance

– Oil maintains its progress on the basis of global demand and is touching levels that it has not reached in more than two weeks, with Brent crude trading at levels of $84.00, as well as West Texas Intermediate crude at levels of $79.00.

“The oil market has shifted its focus back to fundamentals, which have been weak for some time,” Francisco Blanch, commodities and derivatives strategist at Bank of America, said in a note to clients, adding that global crude oil inventories and refined product storage in the United States and Singapore will rise significantly. . Among other places, it was the highest.

At the same time, global oil demand growth slowed to 890,000 barrels per day on an annual basis in the first quarter, and data indicate that consumption growth is likely to slow further in the second quarter, the memo said.

-Bitcoin price continued its losses and was trading below the $65,000 level. BTC is showing bearish signs and losses may be extended below the $64,600 level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2321.14

The first scenario: selling gold at a break and holding below 2316.03, with a target price of 2309.58 and 2303.36.

Alternative scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2327.41, with a target price of 2333.84 and then 2340.97.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $79.44 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $79.86, targeting a price of $80.32, then 80.89. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $79.18, targeting a price of $78.66, then 78.07.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.07276

The first scenario: selling the euro/dollar at a break of 1.07124, targeting a price of 1.06964, then 1.06751.

Alternative scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break and hold by closing the candle above 1.07351, targeting a price of 1.07536 then 1.07760.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.26931

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.26768, targeting the price of 1.26571 then 1.26317.

Alternative scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold firm by closing above 1.27104, targeting the price of 1.27390 then 1.27611.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20194

The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold steady with a close above 20232, targeting the price of 20302 then 20382.

Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold firm by closing below 20131, price of 20074, then 20023.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From Europe CPI (annual) (May) 12:00
-From the United States of America core retail sales (monthly) (May) 15:30

-From the United States of America Retail Sales (monthly) (May) 15:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index settled around 105.4 on Tuesday, remaining in a sideways trading range so far this week as investors await key US economic data this week to further guide interest rate expectations.

US retail sales and industrial production data will be released later today, while traders will analyze US S&P global PMI reports on Friday.

Several Fed officials will also speak at various events this week.

Last week, the dollar rose as the Federal Reserve’s updated forecast pointed to only one rate cut this year, which could happen in late December.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also confirmed that on Sunday, saying it was a “reasonable expectation” to expect one rate cut this year.

The dollar gave up some of its gains on Monday as the euro stabilized amid waning concerns about the risks of forming a far-right French government.

Gold prices rose on Tuesday as Treasury yields fell, with market participants awaiting US data and comments from Federal Reserve officials for more clarity on the central bank’s road map for lowering interest rates.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled above $80 a barrel on Tuesday after rising nearly 2% in the previous session, supported by an improving global demand outlook and expectations that major oil producers will keep supply tight.