Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index steadied above 103.5 on Tuesday, hovering near its highest level in about two weeks as investors pared back bets on early U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts due to strong U.S. inflation data.

• The yen falls after the Bank of Japan ends negative interest rates.
• Gold holds firm as investors seek guidance from the Fed.
• The Fed is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday.
• Focus on economic projections and updated interest rate dots.
• Palladium falls more than 1%.
• Rising interest rates make holding non-yielding gold less attractive. Traders currently see about a 51% chance of a Fed rate cut in June, down from 56% on Monday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
• The focus has shifted to whether policymakers will make any changes to their interest rate cut projections, or dot plots, for this year.
• Japanese stocks are volatile, and the yen fell to 150 after the Bank of Japan made a historic policy shift as expected.
• The Bank of Japan ended eight years of negative interest rates and other remnants of its unconventional policy at the end of a two-day policy meeting, marking a historic shift away from decades of massive monetary stimulus.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia holds rates steady, says all policy options remain on the table.
• Crude oil rises on strong Chinese demand and drone attacks on Russian refineries, with Brent crude trading at $86.00 and WTI crude at $81.00.
• The two benchmarks hit their highest levels in four months in the previous session, supported by lower crude exports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq and signs of stronger demand and economic growth in China and the United States.
• In Russia, supply concerns from higher exports following Ukrainian attacks on the country’s oil infrastructure continued to weigh on prices.
• Bitcoin price struggled to recover above the $68,800 resistance level. BTC is now moving towards the downside and there is a risk of further downside below the $65,000 support level.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2155.71

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2160.50, with a target price of 2165.56 and 2172.51. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2152.27, with a price target of 2145.82 and then 2138.47.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $81.97 per barrel

The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $82.29, targeting a price of $82.76, then 83.32. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $81.61, targeting a price of $81.09, then 80.50.

Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend: – Bearish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08644

The first scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break of 1.08574, targeting a price of 1.08414, then 1.08201. Alternative scenario: buy the euro/dollar at a break of 1.08802, targeting a price of 1.08986, then 1.09211.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.27046

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a fraction and holding below the level of 1.26922, targeting a price of 1.26724, then 1.26500. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a break, and holding steady at a close above 1.27258, targeting a price of 1.27544, then 1.27765.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18183

The first scenario: sell the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close below 18160, targeting the price of 18119 then 18075. Alternative scenario: buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close above 18220, targeting the price of 18259 then 18305.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• Canada Consumer Price Index (Annual) (February) 15:30.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• The dollar index stayed above 103.5 on Tuesday. It’s near its highest level in two weeks. Investors are betting less on the Federal Reserve cutting rates early because of strong US inflation data.
• The yen is down after the Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates.
• Gold is holding steady. Investors are waiting for direction from the Fed.
• The Fed is expected to keep rates the same on Wednesday.
• The focus is on economic forecasts and updated interest rate projections.
• Palladium is falling more than 1%.
• Higher interest rates make holding gold less attractive because it doesn’t pay interest. Investors now see about a 51% chance of a Fed rate cut in June, down from 56% on Monday.
• The focus has shifted to whether policymakers will change their interest rate cut projections for this year.
• Japanese stocks are volatile and the yen fell to 150 after the Bank of Japan made a historic policy shift as expected.
• The Bank of Japan ended eight years of negative interest rates and other parts of its unusual policy. This is a historic move away from decades of massive monetary stimulus.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates steady and said all policy options are still on the table.
• Crude oil prices are rising because of strong demand from China and drone attacks on Russian refineries. Brent crude oil is trading at $86.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude oil is trading at $81.00.
• The two benchmarks hit their highest levels in four months in the previous session. This was supported by lower crude exports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq and signs of stronger demand and economic growth in China and the United States.
• Concerns about supply in Russia from higher exports continued to weigh on prices, following Ukrainian attacks on the country’s oil infrastructure.
• Bitcoin price struggled to recover above the $68,800 resistance level. It’s moving down now and there’s a risk of it going even lower below the $65,000 support level.