Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index steadied around 103.5 on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision this week, where it is widely expected to keep benchmark interest rates unchanged.

• The dollar is holding steady near its highest level in two weeks.
• Gold is falling as investors focus on the dollar and central bank meetings.
• The Fed’s interest rate decision is due on Wednesday.
• The Bank of Japan is set to end its negative interest rate policy in March.
• The U.S. central bank is not expected to make any moves on interest rates, but stronger-than-expected U.S. producer and consumer price data last week prompted traders to rein in bets on future cuts.
• Traders are now pricing in 72 basis points of cuts this year, with a 56% chance of the first rate cut in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
• The focus has shifted to whether policymakers will make any changes to their interest rate cut projections, or dot plots, for this year.
• The Chinese yuan is falling amid caution ahead of global central bank meetings.
• The Bank of Japan appears poised to end negative interest rates and focus on the number of rate cuts the Fed expects.
• Oil prices are building on last week’s gains as supply risks mount, with Brent crude trading at $85.00 and WTI crude at $80.00.
• “The strikes on Russian refineries added between $2 and $3 a barrel of risk premium to crude oil prices last week, which are still in place as we start this week with more attacks over the weekend.”
• In the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday confirmed that he will move forward with plans to annex the Gaza Strip pocket of Rafah, where more than a million displaced people live, in defiance of pressure from Israel’s allies. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the move would make regional peace “very difficult”.
• Bitcoin price tested the $65,000 support zone. BTC is now rising and trying to make a new upward move above the $70,000 resistance zone in the near term.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2147.67

The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2152.06, with a target price of 2157.11 and 2164.06. Alternative scenario: Sell gold at a break and hold below 2143.82, with a price target of 2137.38 and then 2130.02. Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $80.95 per barrel

  The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $81.16, targeting a price of $81.62, then 82.19. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $80.48, targeting a price of $79.96, then 79.37. Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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EURUSD

 

General trend:- Bullish

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08878

The first scenario: Buy the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08929, targeting a price of 1.09113, then 1.09338. Alternative scenario: Sell the Euro/Dollar at a break of 1.08701, targeting a price of 1.08541, then 1.08329. Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.27330

The first scenario: selling the pound dollar at a break and holding below the level of 1.27173, targeting a price of 1.26976 then 1.26752. Alternative scenario: buying the pound dollar at a breaking point and holding steady at a close above 1.27509, targeting a price of 1.27795 then 1.28016. Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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NAS100

 

Trend: down

Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 18158

The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close below 18124, targeting the price of 18082 then 18039. The alternative scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold with a close above 18183, targeting the price of 18223 then 18269.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a decline

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

• No economic data is released today.

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

• The dollar index steadied around 103.5 on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision this week, where it is widely expected to keep benchmark interest rates unchanged.

• Last week, the index rose 0.7% as stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data raised concerns that the Fed may keep interest rates at restrictive levels for longer.

• Data on Thursday showed that U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in February on both a monthly and annual basis.

• That followed data earlier in the week that showed U.S. consumer prices came in hotter than expected last month.

• Markets now see about a 55% chance of a Fed rate cut in June, down sharply from around 80% seen earlier this month.

• Central banks in Japan, Australia and the UK will also decide on monetary policy this week, while inflation and purchasing managers’ index (PMI) figures for major economies are due.

• Gold prices fell on Monday as the dollar steadied and investors braced for a series of policy decisions from major global central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve this week.

• Oil prices rose in Asian trading on Monday, extending gains from last week when prices rose about 4% on supply tightening expectations, with risks rising from further attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.