Daily Market Analysis

 

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

The dollar index held above 103.5 on Thursday, hovering near an 11-week high as signs of strength in the U.S. economy supported expectations that the Federal Reserve will take a more cautious approach to cutting interest rates.

Gold rises to record levels

The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in its two remaining decisions this year, with the odds of a 25 basis point cut in November growing.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates further on Thursday, while falling UK inflation points to a possible rate cut by the Bank of England next month.

– Several major central banks in Asia have also recently cut interest rates.

-In addition, gold prices found support from the uncertainty surrounding the US presidential elections and renewed tensions in the Middle East, after Israel intensified air strikes on Lebanon on Wednesday.

Gold steady ahead of key US economic data

-Gold is steady in early Asian trade ahead of key U.S. economic data later today.

Investors are closely watching data such as retail sales and weekly jobless claims for fresh insights into the path of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions, meanwhile, are contributing to the precious metal’s safe-haven appeal. Israeli airstrikes hit a municipal building in southern Lebanon, killing the city’s mayor and at least 15 others, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing state media.

Asian stocks gave up early gains on Thursday after China’s housing policy briefing disappointed investors, while the dollar held near two-and-a-half-month highs amid the prospect of Donald Trump winning the presidency.

Oil rises from two-week lows as investors await U.S. inventory data, with Brent trading at $74.00 and WTI at $69.00.

The two benchmarks settled on Wednesday, closing at their lowest levels since Oct. 2 for the second day in a row.

Benchmark crudes have fallen 6-7% so far this week after OPEC and the International Energy Agency cut demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025.

Prices also fell as risk premiums eased and fears that a retaliatory attack by Israel on Iran could disrupt oil supplies eased, despite continued uncertainty over the conflict in the Middle East.

“We are now playing a waiting game for two things,” said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG in Sydney. “First, for the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress to lay out the details and size of the fiscal stimulus package that I think is coming.”

Investors are awaiting more details from Beijing on its sweeping plans announced on Oct. 12 to revive its struggling economy.

China said on Thursday it will expand a “white list” of housing projects eligible for financing and increase bank lending for such developments to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) as it seeks to support its struggling property market.

Sycamore said Israel’s response to the recent Iranian attack was the second major focus of the market.

“It is coming, we know it but we don’t know when,” he said, adding that both factors created risks of higher crude oil prices.

In Iran, authorities are working to control an oil spill off Kharg Island, the Islamic Republic News Agency reported on Wednesday.

“It appears to have nothing to do with the war between Israel and Hamas, but it has drawn attention to Iran’s oil export facilities,” analysts at ANZ Bank said in a note.

In the United States, market sources said, citing figures from the American Petroleum Institute on Wednesday, that crude oil and fuel inventories fell last week, contrary to expectations of an increase in crude inventories.

Crude inventories fell by 1.58 million barrels in the week to Oct. 11, the sources said, asking not to be identified. Gasoline stocks fell by 5.93 million barrels, and distillate stocks fell by 2.67 million barrels, they added.

Ten analysts polled by Reuters had on average estimated crude inventories rose by about 1.8 million barrels in the week to Oct. 11.

-Bitcoin price rose further above the $67,500 resistance area. Bitcoin price is now stabilizing and may break above the $68,350 resistance level to continue rising.

-Bitcoin price started rising again above the $65,500 resistance area. Bitcoin price is now stabilizing and may break above the $68,000 resistance level to continue rising.

-Bitcoin price started rising again above the $65,500 resistance area. Bitcoin price is now stabilizing and may break above the $68,000 resistance level to continue rising.

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Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.

If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.

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GOLD

 

General trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 2682.00 Scenario 1: Buy gold with a break and stability above 2687.34 with a target price of 2693.77 and 2700.90

Alternative scenario: Sell gold with a break and stability below 2675.95, targeting 2669.51 and then 2661.67

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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CRUDE OIL

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: $69.90 per barrel Scenario 1: Buy oil by breaking $70.24 with a target price of $70.71 then $71.28

Alternative scenario: Sell oil with a break and stability by closing a candle below $69.56 levels, targeting $69.04 and then $68.46

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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EURUSD

 

General trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.08529 Scenario 1: Sell EUR/USD by breaking 1.08446, targeting 1.08286 and then 1.08073

Alternative scenario: Buy the EUR/USD with a break and hold with a candle closing above 1.08674, targeting 1.08858 and then 1.09083.

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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GBPUSD

 

Trend: Down

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 1.29858 Scenario 1: Sell the pound dollar with a break and stability below the level of 1.29754, targeting the price of 1.29513 and then 1.29291

Alternative scenario: Buy GBP/USD with a break and hold at a buy close of 1.30054 with a target price of 1.30295 then 1.30581

Comment: Trading below the resistances and averages suggests a decline.

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NAS100

 

Trend: Upward

Interval: Half an hour (30 minutes)

Current price: 20442 Scenario 1: Buy Nasdaq with a break and hold with a close above 20493 with a target price of 20597 then 20715

Alternative scenario: Sell Nasdaq with break and hold with close below 20337 with target price of 20212 then 20105

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an upward trend.

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Economic Calendar

 

(Times are in GMT+3)

-From Europe Consumer Price Index (YoY) (September) 12:00
-From Europe ECB Interest Rate Decision (October) 15:15
-From USA Core Retail Sales (MoM) (September) 15:30
-From USA Unemployment Claims Rate 15:30
-From USA Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (October) 15:30
-From USA Retail Sales (MoM) (September) 15:30
-From Europe ECB Press Conference 15:45
-US Crude Oil Inventories 18:00

Fundamental Analysis

 

 

The dollar index held above 103.5 on Thursday, hovering near an 11-week high as signs of strength in the U.S. economy supported expectations that the Federal Reserve will take a more cautious approach to cutting interest rates.

Markets pointed to a strong rise in jobs and consumer inflation figures in September, although simple economic indicators pointed to some slowdown.

Investors are now looking ahead to Thursday’s latest weekly jobless claims, retail sales and industrial production data to further guide price expectations.

The rising odds of Trump winning the November election have also helped lift the dollar, as his policies on tariffs, immigration and taxes are seen as inflationary, which would prevent the central bank from cutting interest rates further.

The dollar held steady at multi-month highs against most major currencies, but lost some ground against the Australian dollar amid strong Australian jobs data.

Gold rose to around $2,680 an ounce on Thursday, trading at record highs, as dovish expectations from major central banks and a slight decline in bond yields boosted demand for non-interest-bearing bullion.

Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday from two-week lows, as investors awaited developments in the Middle East and more details on China’s stimulus plans, as well as official U.S. oil inventory data.