Daily Market Analysis

 

Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights

 

• The dollar drifted as investors awaited Powell’s speech, and the yen fluctuated near the intervention zone.
• Gold fell as investors focused on Powell’s speech, with U.S. Treasury yields continuing to rise.
• Oil prices were supported by supply risks. Brent crude traded at $89.53 and West Texas Intermediate at $85.44.
• Bitcoin hovered above $28,000 after the expectations that the launch of Bitcoin ETFs would lead to a surge in prices proved to be wrong.

---

 

Smart technical reports

 

 

How they work

A likely scenario for the day is proposed, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, could be between 60% and 75%. If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75%.

The first scenario fails when the price reaches the alternative scenario condition level, the alternative scenario is then immediately activated, and the first scenario prediction gets cancelled.

These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making their own decisions, as a reference based on classical technical analysis.

 

---

 

GOLD

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1913.40

First scenario: Buy gold on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1,919.66, targeting a price of $1,924.72 and then $1,931.67.
Alternative scenario: Sell gold on the break of $1,911.43, targeting a price of $1,904.94 and then $1,897.74.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

---

 

CRUDE OIL

 

 

General trend: bullish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $84.73 per barrel

First scenario: Buy oil on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $85.21, targeting a price of $85.76 and then $86.26.
Alternative scenario: Sell oil on the break of $84.59, targeting a price of $84.01 and then $83.49.

Comment: Trading above the supports and averages suggests an uptrend.

---

 

EURUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.05481

First scenario: Sell EURUSD on the break of $1.05405, targeting a price of $1.05245 and then $1.05053.
Alternative scenario: Buy EURUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.05635, targeting a price of $1.05822 and then $1.06031.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

---

 

GBPUSD

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $1.21933

First scenario: Sell GBPUSD on the break of $1.21868, targeting a price of $1.21670 and then $1.21446.
Alternative scenario: Buy GBPUSD on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $1.22205, targeting a price of $1.22490 and then $1.22711.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

---

 

NAS100

 

General trend: bearish

Time interval: 30 minutes

Current price: $15,279

First scenario: Sell Nasdaq on the break of $15,256, targeting a price of $15,202 and then $15,130.
Alternative scenario: Buy Nasdaq on the break when steady by closing the candle above the levels of $15,337, targeting a price of $15,398 and then $15,461.

Comment: Trading below resistances and averages suggests a downtrend.

---

 

Economic Calendar

(Times are in GMT+3)

 

• United Kingdom: Unemployment Rate Index at 9:00
• United Kingdom: Employment Change Index at 9:00
• Europe: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index at 12:00
• Canada: Annual Inflation Rate Index at 15:30
• United States: Retail Sales at 15:30
• United States: Crude Oil Inventories Change at 23:30

 

Fundamental Analysis

 

• The US dollar started the week on a strong note as investors assessed developments in the Middle East and prepared for a series of speeches by central bank officials this week, including Federal Reserve Chair Powell, to gauge monetary policy expectations.
• Gold prices fell on Tuesday as US Treasury yields continued to rise, ahead of economic data and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech this week, which could shape upcoming interest rate decisions.
• The US dollar and Treasury yields rose by 0.1%, making non-yielding bullion expensive for holders of other currencies.
• The Federal Reserve officials may not raise interest rates when they meet in two weeks, but they will also not say that their 19-month campaign to raise borrowing costs is over, a tough messaging challenge that US central bank chief Jerome Powell will face this week.
• Higher interest rates typically weaken gold’s appeal as they increase the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no interest.
• While investors await more signals on US interest rates, they are also watching the tensions in the Middle East that boosted gold prices as a safe haven to their highest levels in more than three weeks on Friday.
• The West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled above $86 a barrel on Tuesday, bolstering ongoing supply risks as the conflict between Israel and Hamas continued to threaten political stability in the Middle East. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed on Sunday to “destroy Hamas” as his forces prepare for a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip.
• On the other hand, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi warned during the weekend that the war could expand if the Israeli blockade on Gaza is not lifted.
• Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute’s oil index fell by more than 1% on Monday, as the potential resumption of Venezuelan crude oil exports weighed on the market.
• The Washington Post reported on Monday that the United States would ease sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports in exchange for steps to ensure the country holds fair presidential elections next year.