enDaily Analysis 17/05/2024
Latest Economic and Fundamental Insights
The dollar index rose for the second day in a row to above 104.5 on Friday, but was still trending lower during the week, as signs of slowing inflation and slowing momentum for the broader economy reinforced expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
-Gold prices are heading for a second weekly gain amid optimism about interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve
Gold has risen by 0.7% so far during the week
Silver reached its highest levels in three years in the last session
Platinum has risen about 7% so far during the week
-The bullish bias in gold prices may continue, as recent US economic data gives room for the Fed to consider early interest rate cuts in 2024 while geopolitical tensions persist. The next target for gold bulls will be its record high.”
“After gold has rebounded nearly 5% over the past two weeks, clarity on US CPI data and the upcoming weekend could also lead to some minor profit taking.”
Data this week that showed signs of slowing inflation provided good news for the US Federal Reserve, but policymakers have not yet publicly changed their views on the timing of interest rate cuts that investors believe will begin this year. (Fedwatch)
Bullion is known as an inflation hedge, but rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia said in a note: “Gold prices may correct lower as markets look to re-establish the historical relationship between gold and the US dollar.” It goes without saying that uncertainty will likely continue in the gold markets in the coming months.”
-Stocks are drifting amid uncertainty about the timing of US interest rate cuts
-The Chinese yuan weakens as the dollar rebounds, and disappointing data weighs heavily
– Oil is heading for weekly gains amid indications of improving demand, with Brent crude trading at $83.00 and West Texas Intermediate crude at $79.00.
– Markets were also strengthened by the growth of Chinese industrial output by 6.7% on an annual basis in April, with the pace of recovery in the sector accelerating. manufacturing, indicating the possibility of increased demand in the future.
The decline in oil and refined product inventories in major global trading centers also created optimism about oil demand growth, reversing the trend of rising inventories that had severely impacted crude oil prices in previous weeks.
-Bitcoin price rose and tested the $66,500 area. BTC is now consolidating gains and may attempt another surge towards $67,500.
Smart technical reports
How they work
A likely scenario is proposed for today, and the probability of this scenario being achieved, according to technical analysis, may be between 60% and 75%.
If the first scenario fails, the probability of the second scenario being achieved will be between 60% and 75% certain.
The first scenario fails when the price reaches the level of the alternative scenario condition, and the alternative scenario is immediately activated and the prediction from the first scenario is cancelled.
These reports are not considered a substitute for the trader’s decision, but rather they are a tool to assist the follower in making his own decisions, as a reference based on the origins of classical technical analysis.
GOLD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 2385.32
The first scenario: Buy gold at a break and hold above 2387.78, with a target price of 2394.21 and 2401.33.
Alternative scenario: sell gold at a break and hold below 2376.39, with a target price of 2369.95 and then 2363.72.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
CRUDE OIL
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: $79.12 per barrel
The first scenario: Buying oil at a break and holding steady by closing the candle at the highest level at $79.32, targeting a price of $79.79, then 80.35. Alternative scenario: Selling oil at a break of $78.64, targeting a price of $78.12, then 77.53.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
EURUSD
General trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.08621
The first scenario: Buying Eurodollars at a break of 1.08727, targeting a price of 1.08912, then 1.09136.
Alternative scenario: sell the euro/dollar at a break and hold firm by closing the candle below 1.08500, targeting the price of 1.08340 then 1.081127
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
GBPUSD
Trend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 1.26432
The first scenario: Buy the pound dollar at a break and hold at the highest level of 1.26768, targeting the price of 1.27054, then 1.27054.
Alternative scenario: sell the pound/dollar at a break and hold firm by closing below 1.26432, targeting the price of 1.26234 then 1.26010.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
NAS100
rend: bullish
Time interval: half an hour (30 minutes)
Current price: 18668
The first scenario: Buy the Nasdaq at a break and hold steady with a close above 18709, targeting the price of 18779 then 18859.
Alternative scenario: sell Nasdaq at a break and hold steady by closing below 18607, price 18550, then 18499.
Comment: Trading above supports and averages suggests an upward trend
Economic Calendar
(Times are in GMT+3)
- From Europe CPI (annual) (April) 12:00
Fundamental Analysis
he dollar index rose for the second straight day above 104.5 on Friday, but was still trending lower during the week, as signs of slowing inflation and slowing momentum for the broader economy reinforced expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
Data released on Wednesday showed that US consumer inflation data came in line with expectations in April, but was lower than the previous month, while retail sales stagnated.
Meanwhile, investors digested mixed economic numbers on Thursday, with initial jobless claims falling roughly in line with expectations, import and export prices rising more than expected, housing starts and building permits disappointing, and industrial production unexpectedly halting.
Meanwhile, traders are waiting for more signals from Federal Reserve officials as policymakers called for caution before moving to cut interest rates.
The dollar is heading towards a weekly decline against most major currencies, but it remains stable against the yen and the yuan.
Gold prices appeared headed for a second straight weekly gain on Friday, after recent US inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year.
Oil prices rose today, Friday, with Brent crude, the global benchmark, heading for its first weekly increase in three weeks thanks to signs of improving global demand amid stronger economic indicators from major consumers China and the United States.
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